Reference class problem - Revision history

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:56:07Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:56, 18 June 2025
Line 23:		Line 23:
	In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "[[Indexicality\|indexical]] information". The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]].		In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "[[Indexicality\|indexical]] information". The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]].

	Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA): "that you should think of yourself as if you were a random observer from a suitable reference class".. He later refines SSA into using observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning, formalized as the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA): ''Each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class.''<ref>{{Cite web \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|date=2005 \|title=Self-Location and Observation Selection Theory \|url=https://anthropic-principle.com/preprints/self-location \|access-date=2023-07-02 \|website=anthropic-principle.com}}</ref> These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class. An application of the principle underlying SSSA (though this application is nowhere expressly articulated by Bostrom), is: If the minute in which you read this article is randomly selected from every minute in every human's lifespan, then (with 95% confidence) this event has occurred after the first 5% of human observer-moments. If the mean lifespan in the future is twice the historic mean lifespan, this implies 95% confidence that N < 10n (the average future human will account for twice the observer-moments of the average historic human). Therefore, the 95th percentile extinction-time estimate in this version is 4560 years.		Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA): ''that you should think of yourself as if you were a random observer from a suitable reference class''. He later refines SSA into using observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning, formalized as the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA): ''Each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class.''<ref>{{Cite web \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|date=2005 \|title=Self-Location and Observation Selection Theory \|url=https://anthropic-principle.com/preprints/self-location \|access-date=2023-07-02 \|website=anthropic-principle.com}}</ref> These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class. An application of the principle underlying SSSA (though this application is nowhere expressly articulated by Bostrom), is: If the minute in which you read this article is randomly selected from every minute in every human's lifespan, then (with 95% confidence) this event has occurred after the first 5% of human observer-moments. If the mean lifespan in the future is twice the historic mean lifespan, this implies 95% confidence that N < 10n (the average future human will account for twice the observer-moments of the average historic human). Therefore, the 95th percentile extinction-time estimate in this version is 4560 years.

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:54:27Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:54, 18 June 2025
Line 21:		Line 21:
	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

	In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "[[Indexicality\|indexical]] information". The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.		In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "[[Indexicality\|indexical]] information". The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]].

			Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA): "that you should think of yourself as if you were a random observer from a suitable reference class".. He later refines SSA into using observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning, formalized as the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA): ''Each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class.''<ref>{{Cite web \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|date=2005 \|title=Self-Location and Observation Selection Theory \|url=https://anthropic-principle.com/preprints/self-location \|access-date=2023-07-02 \|website=anthropic-principle.com}}</ref> These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class. An application of the principle underlying SSSA (though this application is nowhere expressly articulated by Bostrom), is: If the minute in which you read this article is randomly selected from every minute in every human's lifespan, then (with 95% confidence) this event has occurred after the first 5% of human observer-moments. If the mean lifespan in the future is twice the historic mean lifespan, this implies 95% confidence that N < 10n (the average future human will account for twice the observer-moments of the average historic human). Therefore, the 95th percentile extinction-time estimate in this version is 4560 years.

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:32:20Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:32, 18 June 2025
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	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

	In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence~~. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information"~~.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.		In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "[[Indexicality\|indexical]] information". The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:30:42Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:30, 18 June 2025
Line 21:		Line 21:
	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

	In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.~~<ref name=":1" />~~		In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:29:53Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:29, 18 June 2025
Line 21:		Line 21:
	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

	In the book [[Anthropic Bias]], [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.<ref name=":1" />		In the book ''[[Anthropic Bias]]'', [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.<ref name=":1" />

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

ImmortalRationalist: /* History */

2025-06-18T06:29:06Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 06:29, 18 June 2025
Line 20:		Line 20:

	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

			In the book [[Anthropic Bias]], [[philosophy\|philosopher]] [[Nick Bostrom]] described ways in which reference classes can be applied to reasoning about one's position in reality. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that [[evidence]] is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the "[[anthropic principle]]", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".<ref>{{Cite web\|title = Anthropic Bias {{!}} anthropic-principle.com\|url = http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=anthropic_bias\|website = www.anthropic-principle.com\|accessdate = 2015-11-03}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite book \|last=Bostrom \|first=Nick \|title=Anthropic bias: observation selection effects in science and philosophy \|date=2002 \|publisher=Routledge \|isbn=978-0-415-88394-8 \|series=Studies in philosophy \|location=New York}}</ref> The book first discusses the [[fine-tuned universe]] hypothesis and its possible explanations, notably considering the possibility of a [[multiverse]]. Bostrom argues against the self-indication assumption (SIA), a term he uses to characterize some existing views, and introduces the self-sampling assumption (SSA). He later refines SSA into the strong self-sampling assumption (SSSA), which uses observer-moments instead of observers to address certain paradoxes in anthropic reasoning. These different assumptions are affected differently based on the choice of reference class.<ref name=":1" />

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

HallyTall: /* History */ fix citation

2024-06-17T15:36:56Z

History: fix citation

← Previous revision		Revision as of 15:36, 17 June 2024
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	The name "problem of the reference class" was given by [[Hans Reichenbach]], who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result."<ref>H. Reichenbach, ''The Theory of Probability'' (1949), p. 374</ref>		The name "problem of the reference class" was given by [[Hans Reichenbach]], who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result."<ref>H. Reichenbach, ''The Theory of Probability'' (1949), p. 374</ref>

	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 \|journal=SSRN Electronic Journal }}</ref>

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

80.111.232.39: /* See also */

2024-03-04T18:03:52Z

Reflecktor: /* History */

2024-02-27T21:27:30Z

History

← Previous revision		Revision as of 21:27, 27 February 2024
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	The name "problem of the reference class" was given by [[Hans Reichenbach]], who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result."<ref>H. Reichenbach, ''The Theory of Probability'' (1949), p. 374</ref>		The name "problem of the reference class" was given by [[Hans Reichenbach]], who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result."<ref>H. Reichenbach, ''The Theory of Probability'' (1949), p. 374</ref>

	There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the life ~~sciences~~, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 }}</ref>		There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy<ref>A. Hájek, [https://web.archive.org/web/20180111165141/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2899/90fa6af58b0e1b3103fdee05aef57e53de48.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref> and in the [[life science]]s, e.g., clinical trial prediction.<ref>{{Cite journal\|last1=Atanasov\|first1=Pavel D.\|last2=Joseph\|first2=Regina\|last3=Feijoo\|first3=Felipe\|last4=Marshall\|first4=Max\|last5=Siddiqui\|first5=Sauleh\|date=2021-12-09\|title=Human Forest vs. Random Forest in Time-Sensitive COVID-19 Clinical Trial Prediction\|url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3981732\|language=en\|location=Rochester, NY\|ssrn=3981732 }}</ref>

	==Legal applications==		==Legal applications==

Bu11os: Made the title of the article [reference class problem] bold in the first sentence.

2023-02-26T18:14:45Z

Made the title of the article [reference class problem] bold in the first sentence.

← Previous revision		Revision as of 18:14, 26 February 2023
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	{{Short description\|Issue when estimating a probability}}		{{Short description\|Issue when estimating a probability}}
	In [[statistics]], the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the [[probability]] applicable to a particular case.		In [[statistics]], the '''reference class problem''' is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the [[probability]] applicable to a particular case.

	For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. In this example, the aircraft for which we wish to calculate the probability of a crash is a member of many different classes, in which the frequency of crashes differs. It is not obvious which class we should refer to for this aircraft. In general, any case is a member of very many classes among which the frequency of the attribute of interest differs. The reference class problem discusses which class is the most appropriate to use.		For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. In this example, the aircraft for which we wish to calculate the probability of a crash is a member of many different classes, in which the frequency of crashes differs. It is not obvious which class we should refer to for this aircraft. In general, any case is a member of very many classes among which the frequency of the attribute of interest differs. The reference class problem discusses which class is the most appropriate to use.

← Previous revision		Revision as of 18:03, 4 March 2024
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	*[[Reference class forecasting]]		*[[Reference class forecasting]]
	*[[Spectrum bias]]		*[[Spectrum bias]]
			*[[Simpson's paradox]]

	==References==		==References==