2018 Victorian state election: Difference between revisions
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All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly 45 seats are needed for a majority All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next state election in the state of Victoria will be held on Saturday 24 November 2018 to elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and 40 members to the Legislative Council.
Date of election
Pursuant to Electoral Act 2002 Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election, held every 4 years on the last Saturday of November.[1][2] The election will be for all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council.[1][2] Based on the fixed term legislation, the next election will occur on 24 November 2018.
Previous election
Lower house
At the 2014 election, Labor won majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition won 38 seats, with the Liberal party winning 30 and the National party winning 8. On the crossbench, the Greens won 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed won the seat of Shepparton.
Upper house
At the 2014 election, Labor won 14 seats; the Coalition won 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens won 5 seats; the Shooters and Fishers Party won 2 seats; and the Sex Party, Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party won 1 seat each.
Pendulum
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results.[3] The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[4]
By-elections
Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for the 14 March.[5]
Retiring Members
Liberal
- Louise Asher MLA (Brighton) — announced 2 February 2015[6]
Polling
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||
| 13-15 Mar 2015 | Roy Morgan[7] | 43% | 38% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 56% | 44% | |
| 14-16 Feb 2015 | Roy Morgan[8] | 41.5% | 39.5% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | |
| 16–18 Jan 2015 | Roy Morgan[9] | 45% | 35%* | 11.5% | 8.5% | 59% | 41% | |
| 4 December 2014 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||
| 29 Nov 2014 Election | 38.1% | 36.5% | 5.5% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 52.0% | 48.0% | |
| 25–28 Nov 2014 | Ipsos[10] | 35% | 42%* | 15% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |
| 24–27 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 36% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 52% | 48% |
| 27 Nov 2014 | ReachTEL[11] | 38.3% | 34.5% | 5.2% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 52% | 48% |
| 26–27 Nov 2014 | Roy Morgan[12] | 36% | 44%* | 13.5% | 6.5% | 50% | 50% | |
| 25–26 Nov 2014 | Galaxy[13] | 39% | 40%* | 13% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |
| 7–24 Nov 2014 | Essential[14] | 39% | 40%* | 13% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. | ||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here | ||||||||
| Date | Firm | Better Premier | Andrews | Guy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrews | Guy | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
| 13-15 Mar 2015 | Roy Morgan[15] | 62.5% | 37.5% | not asked | ||||
| 14–16 Feb 2015 | Roy Morgan[8] | 62.5% | 37.5% | not asked | ||||
| 16–18 Jan 2015 | Roy Morgan[9] | 66.5% | 33.5% | not asked | ||||
| 4 December 2010 Guy replaces Napthine | Andrews | Napthine | Andrews | Napthine | ||||
| 29 Nov 2014 Election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| 25–28 Nov 2014 | Ipsos[10] | 42% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 49% | 40% | |
| 24–27 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 41% | 38% | 43% | 41% | 45% | |
| 26–27 Nov 2014 | Roy Morgan[12] | 49.5% | 50.5% | not asked | ||||
| 25–26 Nov 2014 | Galaxy[13] | 38% | 41% | not asked | ||||
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose. | ||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here | ||||||||
Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
References
- ^ a b Table Office (24 May 2010). "Information Sheet 16 - A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council". Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
- ^ a b "Fact Sheet G3: Elections" (PDF). Parliament of Victoria. December 2010. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
- ^ Green, Antony (11 December 2014). "Victorian Post-election Pendulum". ABC Elections - Antony Green's Election Blog. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 16 January 2015.
- ^ "Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 January 2015.
- ^ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/former-victorian-nationals-leader-peter-ryan-retires-from-polit/6061934
- ^ http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/time-for-fresh-talent-former-nationals-leader-peter-ryan-bows-out-of-victorian-politics-20150202-1341af.html
- ^ "New Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews strengthens lead while new Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk preferred Premier by men for the first time". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015.
- ^ a b "Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW next month. Palaszczuk's Queensland Election victory reveals fresh 'gender split' in Queensland". Roy Morgan Research. 18 March 2015. Retrieved 4 April 2015.
- ^ a b "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015.
- ^ a b Gordon, Josh (28 November 2014). "Victorian election 2014: result likely to come down to the wire". The Age. Melbourne. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
- ^ "7 News - Victorian poll - 27 November 2014". ReachTEL. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
- ^ a b "ALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party preferences". Roy Morgan Research. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 27 November 2014.
- ^ a b "Voters united in Link support". Herald Sun. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
- ^ "Essential Report - Victorian State Election" (PDF). Essential Research. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
RoyMorgan13mar2015was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
