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2016 Basque regional election: Difference between revisions

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The 75 members of the [[Basque Parliament]] are elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Basque Country's three provinces, using the [[D'Hondt method]] and a [[Closed list|closed-list]] [[proportional representation]] system. Each district is assigned a fixed set of seats, distributed as follows: [[Province of Álava|Alava]] (25), [[Province of Biscay|Biscay]] (25) and [[Province of Gipuzkoa|Gipuzkoa]] (25).
The 75 members of the [[Basque Parliament]] are elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Basque Country's three provinces, using the [[D'Hondt method]] and a [[Closed list|closed-list]] [[proportional representation]] system. Each district is assigned a fixed set of seats, distributed as follows: [[Province of Álava|Alava]] (25), [[Province of Biscay|Biscay]] (25) and [[Province of Gipuzkoa|Gipuzkoa]] (25).


Voting is on the basis of [[universal suffrage]] in a [[secret ballot]]. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which include blank ballots&mdash;for [[none of the above]]) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.<ref name="Basque Electoral Law">{{cite web |url=http://noticias.juridicas.com/base_datos/CCAA/pv-l5-1990.html |title=Law 5/1990, of 15 June, of elections to the Basque Parliament.}}</ref>
Voting is on the basis of [[universal suffrage]] in a [[secret ballot]]. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which include blank ballots&mdash;for [[none of the above]]) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.

However owing to large discrepancies in population between the three provinces each of the 25 elected members in [[Province of Álava|Araba]] represents around 6000 electors while in the more populous [[Province of Biscay|Biscay or Bizkaia]] each of the 25 elected members represents over 20,000 electors. <ref>{{cite web|last1=Álvarez-Rivera|first1=Manuel|url=http://www.electionresources.org/es/eus/index_en.html|website=Election Resources .org|publisher=Election Resources}}</ref>


==Latest possible date==
==Latest possible date==

Revision as of 23:29, 13 March 2016

Next Basque parliamentary election
← 2012 On or before 20 November 2016
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Iñigo Urkullu Arnaldo Otegi Idoia Mendia
Party EAJ/PNV Euskal Herria Bildu Socialist Party of the Basque Country – Basque Country Left
Leader since 2 December 2007 12 March 2016 20 September 2014
Last election 27 seats, 34.2% 21 seats, 24.7% 16 seats, 18.9%
Current seats 27 21 16
Seats needed Increase11 Increase17 Increase22
 
Leader Alfonso Alonso Gorka Maneiro
Party PP UPyD
Leader since 15 October 2015 2008
Last election 10 seats, 11.6% 1 seat, 1.9%
Current seats 10 1
Seats needed Increase28 Increase37
Incumbent Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV



The next Basque parliamentary election will be held on or before Sunday, 20 November 2016, to elect the 11th Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of the Basque Country. At stake will be all 75 seats in the Parliament, determining the Lehendakari of the Basque Country.

Electoral system

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Basque Country's three provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is assigned a fixed set of seats, distributed as follows: Alava (25), Biscay (25) and Gipuzkoa (25).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.

However owing to large discrepancies in population between the three provinces each of the 25 elected members in Araba represents around 6000 electors while in the more populous Biscay or Bizkaia each of the 25 elected members represents over 20,000 electors. [1]

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 20 November 2016. This date is determined as follows:

Law Requirement Comments
SoABC: Article 26.4[2] The Parliament will be elected for a term of four years. The 2012 election was held on 21 October 2012. Four years after 21 October 2012 is 21 October 2016.
Ley 5/1990: Article 47.2 and 47.3[3] Except in the case of an early dissolution, the decree calling for new elections will be issued 25 days before the expiry date of the Parliament (...) and [the decree] will be published the following day after its issuing.
The decree will enter into force on the day of its publication. 		25 days before 21 October 2016 is 26 September 2016. The day after 26 September 2016 is 27 September 2016.
Ley 5/1990: Article 47.3[3] (...) Voting must take place 54 days from the publication [of the election calling decree]. 54 days after 27 September 2016 is 20 November 2016.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		File:Eaj-pnv.png Margin
of Error 		Sample
Size 		Lead
style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Euskal Herria Bildu/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Socialist Party of the Basque Country – Basque Country Left/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:People's Party (Spain)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|
GPS February 2, 2016 31.3 19.1 12.0 8.8 2.5 0.2 3.3 20.5 ±2.1 pp 2,310 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.8
Redondo & Asociados January 16, 2016 30.0 19.0 12.8 8.3 3.0 25.0 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 5.0
General Election December 20, 2015 24.8 15.1 13.3 11.6 2.9 0.3 4.1 26.0 style="background:Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color; color:white;"| 1.2
UPV/EHU June 15, 2015 33.5 23.1 14.5 8.1 1.7 15.1 ±4.1 pp 600 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.4
JJGG Election May 24, 2015 33.3 22.4 13.6 9.3 2.7 0.5 2.1 13.7 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.9
Municipal Elections May 24, 2015 33.1 23.4 14.6 9.4 3.1 0.1 1.6 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 9.7
UPV/EHU November 14, 2014 30.5 19.7 12.8 8.1 3.2 2.2 25.6 ±4.1 pp 600 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 4.9
EP Election May 25, 2014 27.5 23.4 13.8 10.2 5.6 3.3 0.8 6.9 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 4.1
UPV/EHU May 19, 2014 34.2 23.9 16.5 8.1 6.4 2.2 4.8 ±4.1 pp 600 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.3
UPV/EHU November 15, 2013 34.9 25.9 15.5 9.6 4.4 2.2 ±2.8 pp 1,200 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 9.0
GPS October 11, 2013 34.7 24.1 17.7 10.8 3.1 2.3 ±2.1 pp 2,289 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.6
UPV/EHU May 27, 2013 34 24 18 10 4 3 ±2.8 pp 1,200 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10
GPS April 27, 2013 34.9 24.2 17.8 10.0 3.1 2.5 ±2.1 pp 2,277 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 10.7
Regional Election October 21, 2012 34.2 24.7 18.9 11.6 2.7 1.9 style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 9.5

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

38 seats needed for majority
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		File:Eaj-pnv.png
style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Euskal Herria Bildu/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Socialist Party of the Basque Country – Basque Country Left/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:People's Party (Spain)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|
GPS February 2, 2016 24 15 9 8 0 0 1 18
Redondo & Asociados January 16, 2016 22/23 13/14 10 6 0/1 0 0 21/22
UPV/EHU June 15, 2015 25/26 18/19 10/11 7/8 0 0 0 11/12
JJGG Election May 24, 2015 (26) (18) (10) (9) (1) (0) (0) (11)
UPV/EHU November 14, 2014 22/23 13/14 10 6 0/1 0/1 0 21/22
UPV/EHU May 19, 2014 29 22 12 7 3 1 0 1
UPV/EHU November 15, 2013 29 23 12 8 2 1
GPS October 11, 2013 27 21 15 10 1 1
UPV/EHU May 27, 2013 28 20 14 10 2 1
GPS April 27, 2013 27 21 15 10 1 1
Regional Election October 21, 2012 27 21 16 10 0 1

References

  1. ^ Álvarez-Rivera, Manuel. Election Resources .org. Election Resources http://www.electionresources.org/es/eus/index_en.html. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  2. ^ "Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country of 1979; Title II. Of the powers of the Basque Country, Chapter I. Of the Basque Parliament". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-02-26.
  3. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference Basque Electoral Law was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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