Talk:Temperature record of the last 2,000 years

POV label

I've added the POV label. It's especially the introduction - the first paragraph - whose current form is unacceptable. The papers by Mann et al. are increasingly problematic. Many errors have been pointed out by many authors, and Mann et al. had to publish an extensive list of errors in Nature. The method itself was recently shown to produce highly biased results - see September 30th issue of Science (Hans Von Storch). [1] [2] [3]

Many scientists would agree that we have a lot of material that is more reliable than Mann et al. This page in its current form is a piece of propaganda produced by the alarmists, and Wikipedia deserves a better page. --Lumidek 16:44, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 17:19, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Lumideks assertions above are inaccurate. The NPOV header is spurious. The Mann et al reconstructions are widely accepted by the climatology community, whereas the criticisms are not. To assert that "many authors" have pointed out errors is wrong: M&M have published a little-regarded critique; the von S paper is far more sensible but very new. Muller is merely parroting M&M, and L is wrong to imply that Muller is saying anything related to von S. Also, von S doesn't say the hockey stick is biased: just that it underestimates long-term variance: which is a very different thing. MBH indeed published a corrigendum in nature but that was a corrigendum to the methods and sources: not to the results. The Nature corrigendum explicitly states that the results are unaltered. This is stark contrast to McK, who recently managed to confuse degrees and radians and hence get the wrong results. And finally... as the article points out... the results of other authors agree with MBH, thus providing independent verification [4].

Adding long term variance to the temperature graph has the effect to eliminate the conjectures about the extraordinary warming in the 20th century - and it is exactly this unjustified conjecture that is promoted so much in this article, which is why this article is a POV. If the temperature fluctuated a lot, as other papers than those MBH-like claim, then the results of MBH are not true, and their promotion in most of this article is unjustifiable.

(William M. Connolley 19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) The page shows results other than MBH, which produce similar results. If you know of reconstructions that differ substanitally from MBH, you haven't troubled to ref them.

As I understand well, you have not found any problems with Von Storch's paper in Science.

(19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Von S is a sensible chap. But his paper doesn't support the interpretation you've given. And the von S paper is very new.

Incidentally, this is the first time I am writing the name "Richard Muller" - so far, I consider Richard Muller to be a Slovak musician. ;-) Sure, I know the physicist, but I thought that he only wrote a semi-popular article explaining why global warming science is not hard science; has he done some actual piece of research?

(William M. Connolley 19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) The RM I'm talking about is the author of the second link that you inserted above. Do you not bother read the stuff you link to?

When you say that "the results of other authors agree with MBH", you should also say that the results of yet other authors disagree with MBH.

(William M. Connolley 19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) You keep saying this. When, one day, you actually provide a ref then maybe I'll take you seriously.

MBH was published to overthrow the old belief - or theory - that there has been intense medieval warm period, followed by little ice age, and so forth.

(William M. Connolley 19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) This too is inaccurate and unhistorical. Before MBH, there were no long reconstructions of hemispheric T. Thats why it gets so much attention - it was the first (or one of the very first) quantitative estimates of hemi T.

There are just too many people who call the MBH-like texts "junk science", and I encourage you to consider these people seriously. The Russian Academy of Science labeled Kyoto, for example, as "scientifically unfounded nonsense". --Lumidek 18:06, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 19:40, 6 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Ah yes, the ever reliable RAS. A point worth talking about. Clearly, tehy aren't influential - Putin rejected their foolish advice. More interestingly though, how did they reach their advice. Can you point to an authoritative position paper from them - or are you just quoting press releases from a few members? And can you point to any reports on what they based their opinions on?

Page name

(William M. Connolley 19:34, 17 Oct 2003 (UTC)) This page contains useful info, some of it added by me, but there's no way I'm going to add links to anything called "hockey stick graph", so I've renamed it to a more neutral title. Those who like the old one can continue to use the redirect, and that seems fair to me, esp since nothing links to the hsg.

ps: I got the move wrong at first and linked to ...1000years. (with a full stop). Hopefully this is now corrected.

I agree that Hockey Stick can continue as a REDIRECT. It's a term used chiefly (only?) by 'skeptics' (as you call them) - not 'enviros' (as your colleague Fred Singer calls them). BTW, can you think of any better terms for GW advocates than enviros & skeptics? --Uncle Ed 15:50, 21 Oct 2003 (UTC)

What is up with that graph? there are no units, and there is not even a scale along the bottom. If you add a graph, find one which has units and put a summary below for context. -- Catskul 2004 Feb 13

(William M. Connolley 17:02, 15 Feb 2004 (UTC)) Replaced graph with the ready-to-slot in replacemetn, why couldn't you bother? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image%3AGlobwarmNH.png and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image%3AMBH98_SEW_drawing311.png

Misc

(William M. Connolley 20:50, 20 Oct 2003 (UTC))

Changed "about 1 oF (0.4 to 0.8 oC)" to "about 0.6 oC". There is no point giving 2 temperature units everywhere, and oC is better (err - there must be some kind of wiki policy on this, I wonder what it might be?). 0.6 not range, not to attempt to suppress uncertainty, but because thats covered elsewhere and is not the point of this page.

replace "used by the IPCC" with "these"; add "quantitative" to first para. The point being, its what these graphs show, whether used by IPCC or not.

Add para re qual/quant distinction, which inevitably makes the quant records sound superior. Partly because they are; partly because they are more amenable to analysis.

Wasn't the Maunder Min a period of low sunspot activity, first, and a cold period, second?

I don't think the sunspot record goes back into the MWP but leave this for now.

Hottest year

From text:

The work of Mann et al. and others [5] forms a major part of the IPCC's conclusion that atmospheric temperatures had been on a slow, gradual downward trend until the 20th century when greenhouse gas emissions caused temperatures to increase at an unprecedented rate; and that the present warming is unusual within the last 1000 years. It also shows that 1998 was the hottest year in the record.

Saying that Mann's "work...shows that 1998 was the hottest year" implies that Mann's work is reliable and honest, since it shows a "fact". But Wikipedia ought not to endorse Mann's claims like this. We should not use authoritative language which implies that these are objective "findings" of impartial searcher of truth.

Rather, we should say that the data Mann selected and arranged bolster his contention that temps were flat until recently, and that his graph presents 1998 as the hottest year -- rather than saying that his work proves that 1998 was the hottest year.

Another paper, which I'll cite in a moment, thoroughly discredits his work as little better than a fabrication -- okay, maybe he made an honest mistake, but it's at best shoddy work. He didn't take enough data points, and he simply ERASED the medievel warm period because it didn't fit in with his pre-ordained conclusion.

This division of quantitative (proving Mann and IPCC right) vs. qualitative (uninformed speculations of skeptics) is just UN/enviro POV. --Uncle Ed 21:17, 24 Nov 2003 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 22:44, 24 Nov 2003 (UTC)) You still don't inderstand qual/quant. Keep trying.

<grin> Well, doc, it would help if you explained the distinction better. How about writing a short article? --Uncle Ed 22:59, 24 Nov 2003 (UTC)

Recent papers

We should probably add the two recent papers attacking the conclusions by Mann et al.

This one by Soon et. al. (There are actually two papers that are substantially the same)...

http://www.kolumbus.fi/boris.winterhalter/EnEpreprintFeb03.pdf

They had it published in "Energy & Environment", which is notable see this excerpt from 'Chronicle of Higher Education'

http://www.davidappell.com/archives/00000293.htm

another discuss at Eureka alert

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-07/agu-lcs070703.php

and the actual response by Mann et. al.

http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0327/2003EO270003.pdf#anchor

The second paper of interest is

http://www.multi-science.co.uk/mcintyre_02.pdf

again pulblished in 'Energy & Environment'

by McIntyre and McKitrick

and here is the rebuttal by Mann et. al

http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/Mann/EandEPaperProblem.pdf

(William M. Connolley 01:17, 9 Dec 2003 (UTC)) Yes. But some of that is already somewhere... oh yes, on Michael_Mann_(scientist) (Ed Poor started it...). I would actually prefer it to stay there, perhaps augmented: at the moment, the value of M&M is very much in debate, and is more of a "challenge to Mann" (and hence approprite to his page) than a contribution to the T record (my POV). The S+B paper(s) are junk... I'd rather not pollute wikipedia with them. They are of no value to the T record pages... perhaps under global warming controversy? Somewhere.

I realize they are junk, but my concern is, that skeptics will have heard of the papers (due to media saturation), but have doubtfully heard the refutations. Thus if we fail to mention the papers and fail to explain the problems with them, I suspect either readers will doubt the NPOV, or will assume we are ignorant of the papers.

(William M. Connolley 13:59, 13 Dec 2003 (UTC)) In which case probably the best thing to do is to start a page about just that paper (poss a bit too specialised), or a page about Soon or Baliumas (do they have one already?), or dump it into the hell-hole that is global warming controversy, or... Well, if you want to write up the S+B papers, good luck to you, whereever you put it.

Re-balancing

(William M. Connolley 21:19, 5 Feb 2004 (UTC)) I've de-skepticised the page somewhat, and added a rebuttal from Mann to M&M (forgetting what was on this very talk page about using the Mann page...

Firstly, I've re-instated *all* quant recons. I'll repeat what I said to Ed: you want to get rid of all, you have to find one that says otherwise (and no, M&M doesn't count, can you guess why?).

I cut the "belies activist claims" stuff: what was that there for?

John Dalys page doesn't describe skepticism, it pushes Dalys POV; hence rewording.

Re M&M, I've collapsed it somewhat, in particular making the de-listing the list, because it doesn't (yet) deserve the expanded space. But all the items in the list are still there.

FUD from Soon et al.

(William M. Connolley 19:35, 4 Jul 2004 (UTC)) OK, a POV header perhaps...

Fear is irrelevant to science. Uncertainty and doubt are hardly surprising when there are many unknowns. FUD is a marketing term, so it depends on what is being sold. -- (SEWilco)

Para removed from page:

There are difficulties also in presentation of the recent instrumental record, which is often shown near the end of temperature reconstructions.

• Soon, Legates, and Balunias pointed out in 2004 that they were able to replicate the instrumental surface temperature trends as shown in several studies.
  • However, they were unable to reproduce the long-term Northern Hemispheric surface temperature trends in Figure 2.21 of IPCC TAR and Figure 2a of (Mann and Jones [2003]). It should be possible to duplicate the results of such a study.
  • During one year, three related studies show an increasing temperature change, with the change increasing at the extremely rapid rate of about 1 to 2.5 °C per decade. The authors of those three studies were showing that during the year that their studies had produced increasingly larger rates of change. Each study showed that temperature was increasing ever more quickly. Soon et al. found no justification for the high value in the last paper (Mann and Jones [2003]).

• Estimation and representation of long-term (>40year) trends of Northern-Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: A note of caution. Willie W.-H. Soon, David R. Legates, Sallie L. Baliunas Geophysical Research Letters February 14, 2004 http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~wsoon/myownPapers-d/SLB-GRL04-NHtempTrend.pdf
• Willie Soon's summary of above paper and comments on the scientific method: http://www.techcentralstation.com/062404I.html

The Soon study is a bit weird. They repeatedly talk about claims of 1oC/y or whatever - a claim made by nobody but them.

(SEWilco 04:05, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) They say the claim is in the figures.

As to their problems in 2b - look at it. THe green line looks like a better fit to the data than the red.

(SEWilco 04:05, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) It looks like a better fit, but it won't be if next year is much warmer or colder. Just as the green line would be too high or low on a graph ending in 1931 or 1940 (without using data in the future of that date), due to the obvious change in trend in those years.

The paper appears to be FUD. The *calculation* of the trends isn't done from reading lines off graphs so its all quite irrelevant.

(SEWilco 04:05, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Soon's calculations also were based on real data, but could not duplicate the trends shown without finding problems. As you say, there are trends shown in the figures.

(SEWilco 14:30, 5 Jul 2004 (UTC)) - WMC knows most of this, but I show more detail here for other readers.

Looks to me like they got the trends from the slope of the lines on the graph, and they are looking at the rate of change shown for very recent years. They started with formal instrumental data and tried to duplicate the published graphs. But using the last year's data as the average for the next 20 years is not a reliable way to get the pretty line to the end of the paper. As the article states, we don't have information about future events so the method which involves 20 years in the past and 20 years in the future produces a graph which should end 20 years before the end of the data. Pushing the line to the last year involves increasing uncertainty.

Yes, I see in 2b (page 3 of Soon's paper) that the green line looks nice. But if the graph is cut off at 1941, the green line would go upward and away from what actually happened. If the graph is cut off at 1930, the green line would go downward from what actually happened.

(SEWilco 14:39, 5 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Reinserted in the article the paragraph about Soon's study.

(SEWilco 04:05, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Rereinserted another version of Soon paragraph.

(William M. Connolley 08:37, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) This is silly. Soon et al come to the grand conclusion that:

concluding that there are problems in recent suggestions of an extremely rapid rate of about 1 to 2.5 °C per decade

BUT THIS SUGGESTION IS ONLY MADE BY SOON ET AL. Not by anybody else. They are rebutting their own nonsense! FUD removed again.

(SEWilco 16:07, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) The suggestion is from the published figures.

(William M. Connolley 16:30, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Thats why its FUD, not an outright lie. Soon et al are trying to give the impression that people have been saying that the recent T trend is 1-2.5 oC/y. This is nonsense, only Soon et al are saying this so they can create a strawman to knock down.

(SEWilco 08:02, 7 Jul 2004 (UTC)) It's not the T trend which they refer to. It's the rate of change of the T trend during the year 2002-2003. The illustrated T trend increased by as much as 0.25°C/y during a single year. 0.25 * 10 years = 2.5

(William M. Connolley 16:06, 7 Jul 2004 (UTC)) I don't know where you get this weird interpretation from. I don't find it in the paper. And the tech central article talks about "the extreme warming trend of 1 to 2.5 oc/decade...". Thats a trend, not a rate of change of trend. Mann et al (despite Soons insinuations) don't say this. Nor does theor figure c support it either. Their figure c appears to show 0.5-0.6 oC in about 2 decades. Furthermore, the assertion (lower down) that T trend estimates are quite arbitrary is total cr*p. They have failed to distinuish (perhaps to even understand) the different between lines on a graph and fitting trend estimates. I do hope that you understand this.

(SEWilco 17:01, 7 Jul 2004 (UTC)) That's why I mentioned 0.25, so you can search the PDF: look at the end of paragraph [3] on page 1 of Soon, paragraph 13 on page 3, and 19 on page 4.

(SEW) The figures are a statement of trend, as you recognized when you commented one trend line looking like a better fit.

(William M. Connolley 16:30, 6 Jul 2004 (UTC)) No, the statements of trend are the numerical numbers quoted in IPCC and elsewhere. But Soon et al can't touch those, so they have to create strawmen instead.

(SEWilco 08:02, 7 Jul 2004 (UTC)) The numbers and methods don't all match the illustrations. Although not all the numbers and methods are available, or are not stated correctly. Are there really enough numbers to show what the illustrations show? Often studies use illustrations as summaries, and extracting data from them is done often enough that there is software to do that.

(WMC) As to the lines and the fit... yes Soons lines don't seem to fit very well.

(SEW) There should be no problem replicating the studies, so the lines should fit. You know how science works.

(SEW) The studies present a pattern, rather than just the raw data, but in some cases the pattern is not supported. Soon's point is that the calculation of the fit is unexplained or seems to be based on artificial future temperatures

(WMC) This is a (minor) signal processing matter. People drawing average lines through noisy data like to get to the end. Which you can't do by simple averaging.

(SEW) These people seem to not agree how to reach the end. Even when one of them is working on all three drawings. As Soon says, they should better explain their methods.

(SEW) , and more information should be given with such figures. Thus I am pointing out that there are problems with the representation of temperature records. Review and replication of studies is part of the scientific method, including failed replication (ie "cold fusion").

Are any of the above issues unresolved? Which? (SEWilco 07:48, 17 Jul 2004 (UTC))

(William M. Connolley 21:31, 24 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Back from hols... anyway: my central point is that Soon et al is FUD (I only say that to explain my overall view of its: I'm not pretending its a complete criticism in itself). Anyway, the unresolved points are: is the 1-2.5 oC stuff referring to T trends or to increases in T trends; where anyway do S *get* this value from; and why its a valid criticism when they are the only people saying it. There also seems to be some confusion that S are encouraging about the *computation* of T trends as opposed to their *display*: the end-padding S talk about is irrelevant for the computation.

(William M. Connolley 08:56, 27 Jul 2004 (UTC)) I've added comments below, but this is going round in circles.

• The 1-2.5°C is increase in T trends. That is, the published trends are showing increasingly higher trends for the same period. They also say that they found no justification for one high value, so they obviously got the value from the chart because they can't duplicate that result. The Tech Central Station article shows that they couldn't get an explanation of how to duplicate it, other than some "circular explanation".

(William M. Connolley 08:56, 27 Jul 2004 (UTC)) The only people talking about 1-2.5 oC stuff are Soon et al. No-one else. They are just making these claims to knock them down: strawmen.

(SEWilco 15:59, 27 Jul 2004 (UTC))

1. Do you see that those 3 graphs do not end the same way?
   1. If you don't see the graphs are different then let's examine them more closely.
   2. If you see the graphs are different then you're now one of those who has observed there is a difference in the published trends.

(William M. Connolley 19:38, 28 Jul 2004 (UTC)) This is where you have failed to understand the difference between drawing pretty lines on graphs, and the published temperature trends. When IPCC says the trends over the last century are 0.4-0.8 oC (or whatever) they are *not* reading the lines off graphs. They are going it by LS fit or somesuch. Which don't suffer from any of this nonsense. Do *you* understand that.

(SEWilco 05:08, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Yes, if Dr X reports a range like that then it is from the results of his calculations; he might also show results on a graph but he is producing the graph from his numbers. However, if he only publishes the graph and not the numerical results then all he's offering is for us to read the lines off the graph. The graph can be studied, just as similar graphs from analog instruments can be studied.

1. 1. 1. Measure the differences in the endpoints of the graphs.
         1. I see trends of 0.3, 0.41, and 0.55 °C per decade. Do you see similar values?

(William M. Connolley 19:38, 28 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Don't do this!

(SEWilco 05:08, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) What do you want us to do? If the numerical results are available, we can use those. Perhaps Soon et al. used numerical result data sets, although the references only mention the published studies. Aren't published studies what you say should be used as authoritative sources?

(William M. Connolley 09:21, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) What do I want you to do? I want you to calculate trends by LS fits to data, not by reading wiggly lines off graphs by eye.

(SEWilco 15:36, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) You indicated a lack of understanding where the 0.1 and 0.25 came from, so I presented a back of the envelope method. If you don't want to eyeball the graphs, dump their numerical representation of their results in your spreadsheet and compare the numbers. Are you getting values which are significantly different?

(William M. Connolley 15:55, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) You have misunderstood me. You said, you were getting trend values by eyeballing wiggly lines. I said, this is a poor method of deriving trends, amongst other reasons because it suffers from the end effects that so excise Soon et al. If you want to derive trends, do what all sane people do and derive them from fits to the original data, which doesn't suffer from these problems.

(SEWilco 05:02, 1 Aug 2004 (UTC)) So have you found yet that the three graphs show final trend values which differ? I don't care whether you want to use the red pixel on the image or numerical data. I'm just asking if there is a difference, the amount of difference is the next item.

1. 1. 1. 1. The differences are about 0.1 and 0.25 °C per decade. Do the math yourself because reproducibility of results is important.
         2. The three studies appeared in one year.
            1. I don't see mention of when the studies were authored, so the differences in publication date seems to be used instead of the actual times.
            2. The change in trends of 0.1 and 0.25 within one year are projected as changes of 1 and 2.5 per decade. The decade timescale matches that used in the studies.

(William M. Connolley 19:38, 28 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Indeed. This is where the total twaddle comes in. Thanks for explaining it so clearly - I hadn't realised that Soon et al were really dumb enough to do this.

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.1 change in a year * 10 years in a decade = 1 / decade
            2. 0.25 change in a year * 10 years in a decade = 2.5 / decade
         2. If your calculations also show 1-2.5 then now you are also making the claim. It's no longer only Soon et al.
2. Quantity of participants does not determine a straw man, it is the ingredients. In which of the above steps is straw growing?

• The number of people saying something does not affect whether it is true or not -- are the charts for the same period the same or not?
• The computational issues are an attempt to figure out what causes such differences, but the differences are there whether explained or not. This study shows there are difficulties in dealing even with the very newest temp records. -- (SEWilco 06:05, 25 Jul 2004 (UTC))

(William M. Connolley 08:56, 27 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Let me take this very very slowly as I'm clearly not getting through. (1) If you want to draw pretty lines on a graph of smoothed data, then you need to do something to "pad it to the end" if you want the smoothed lines to go to the end. There is no unique way to do this. (2) If you want to calculate the trend in a series then point one is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT because the trend can be and is calculated without any need for padding. I don't understand what you mean by "there are difficulties in dealing even with the very newest temp records".

(SEWilco 15:59, 27 Jul 2004 (UTC)) (0) The published trends are different.

(William M. Connolley 19:38, 28 Jul 2004 (UTC)) No. The wiglly lines are different. The published trends aren't.

(1) The same method of smoothing should be used, so the results from all three similar studies should be the same. Instead 3 studies show increasing trends, so differences were examined, and one could not be duplicated. (2) The padding was examined in an attempt to duplicate the published results, as the published studies showed the trend was changing although the data was not.

(William M. Connolley 19:38, 28 Jul 2004 (UTC)) But this is where the total nonsense occurs. Different smoothing leads to different wiggly lines. They might go up, they might go down. Only Soon et al are dumb enough to create a fake time series from these different wiggly lines. Wikipedia should have nothing to do with this.

(SEWilco 15:36, 29 Jul 2004 (UTC)) Soon et al had to use most of their paper to show that "different smoothing leads to different wiggly lines".

(William M. Connolley 10:17, 1 Aug 2004 (UTC)) No. Different smoothing leading to different lines is obvious.

They had to do this because others produced a fake result of their wriggly lines. If you're going to call Soon's study fake, then that term should apply to the result which Soon found "unjustified". Should Wikipedia have nothing to do with Mann and Jones (2003)?

(William M. Connolley 10:17, 1 Aug 2004 (UTC)) Sigh. You're being silly here. Soon et al have produced a fake timeseries, if your description above is accurate. You say, they have produced a timeseries from differences in other peoples wiggly lines. But those differences in wiggly lines are not well fixed in time (as you say above) and aren't really a time series anyway: they could just has easily appeared in another order had publication dates been different.

FUD from Kyoto supporters

Wilco and William, please stop sparring a moment and help me write about why the IPCC orginally used a temperature graph that showed the Medieval Climate Optimum but then changed to using a temperature graph which conceals that warm period. --Uncle Ed 19:37, 1 Oct 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 20:27, 1 Oct 2004 (UTC)) Welcome back to climate, Ed. But you've been away a while: take a time to familiarise yourself with whats already on the pages before you rush in: in particular the section "Skepticism and rebuttals thereof" subsection "Historical temperature estimates".

Bias

If anyone censors the report of M&M's findings about bugs in Mann's hockey stick program, then I will put the "neutrality disputed" notice back up. "I'm a lover, not a fighter." --user:Ed Poor (deep or sour) 17:32, Nov 11, 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 19:07, 11 Nov 2004 (UTC)) M&M's findings are unpublished. See-also http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/mbh/ if you want some detail. I've just had a look at your additions, which confirm my worst fears. You cannot possibly get away with dumping a pile of undigested skepticism, not even from a published paper, into the intro of the article. Try putting it somewhere sensible, or better still here, and we can talk about it.

Well, you've certainly given me something to chew on, doc. But I don't swallow it. Just what exactly is the flavor of your discontent? Wikipedia is not a refereed journal. I can put in any skeptical remark I like, as long as the source has SOME credentials related to the issue. --user:Ed Poor (deep or sour) 21:18, Nov 11, 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 21:30, 11 Nov 2004 (UTC)) I'll repeat myself (and []) then: You cannot possibly get away with dumping a pile of undigested skepticism, [which is] not even from a published paper, into the intro of the article. Try putting it somewhere sensible, or better still here, and we can talk about it.. You have a bad history of doing this: adding material that (although dubious) might survive lower down in a sensible section but which cannot possibly justify being in the intro.

Are you throwing down the gauntlet now? Let's do this properly, and have your friends arrange the matter with my friends. Pistols at dawn? Icicles at noon? How about a spaghetti-eating contest? Cool off, man. Go outside and breathe some cool British air. --user:Ed Poor (deep or sour) 22:21, Nov 11, 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 23:04, 11 Nov 2004 (UTC)) This isn't war. There is space for the most recent McK stuff (properly qualified). But it doesn't belong in the intro.

This paragraph is meant to confirm that the debate is going on, and actually our side - that insists that these graphs should not be presented as facts - constitutes a majority in this debate. William, it would be nice if you took this observation into account, and if you either allowed the critical remarks about the MBH graphs to appear in the introduction, or accepted the POV label. Concerning newer material along these lines, please don't forget von Storch's recent article in Science. The MBH graphs are very far from an established piece of science. --Lumidek 22:15, 14 Nov 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 22:21, 14 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Putting the M&M stuff into the intro is absurd - its not even published material. And even if it was, putting the entirety of the quote into the intro would still be absurdly unbalanced. Von S is another matter - feel free to introduce von S into the text.

OK, I would be happier if you introduced von S yourself - unless the truth about the record has been showed to you by God, my particle physicist's understanding of the word "science" dictates that the observations of von S are important for this story. Moreover, if the fluctuations by von S are confirmed, I will really think that M&M should take more credit for it, but that's a different issue. At this moment, I find the article plausible - at the edge - so I won't reintroduce POV. --Lumidek 22:55, 14 Nov 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 23:09, 14 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Von S and M&M are orthogonal. This is an encyclopedia, not a newspaper - news requires time to settle down. Von S hasn't. Its in Science, true, but very recently. How would you have reacted if I'd put Vinnikov and Grody down as definitive rebuttal of S+C's MSU stuff?

Von S and M&M are not orthogonal, and both are about the underestimated fluctuations in the past by Mann et al.

(William M. Connolley 10:02, 15 Nov 2004 (UTC)) But there is no connection between their approaches. Neither supports the other.

As you can see, there has not been enough time for Mann et al. to settle down either, and I think that they will not settle down anymore. ;-) I am surprised by your focus on the appearance of various texts in journals. This is certainly not a strategy that I would expect from someone who understands the field although it may be a good strategy for a laymen to choose the right information. However, if a physicist told me that he decides whether a paper is correct or not according to the journal where it appeared (i.e. she or he trusts the referees), I would conclude that the physicist probably does not understand the material herself. Do you actually understand something about climate science, or are you just a science fan that trusts those experts who are able to publish in well-known journals? Although you are very active and visible at all these pages, I have not understood this point so far. To be sure, I want to answer all your questions, so here's the last one. If you decided to put Vinnikov and Grody in this article, I would erase it because it has nothing to do with temperature in the last 1000 years - rather last 25 years as measured by satellites. I am open-minded whether the surface measurements agree with the satellites, and I agree that Vinnikov and Grody are too new for us to be sure about the outcome, especially if we're string theorists like me. ;-) Yes, as you probably guess correctly, I lean to the opinion that the surface measurements are biased by human activity, and the satellites can show much less change, but it's certainly not a dogma for me. --Lumidek 23:27, 14 Nov 2004 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 10:02, 15 Nov 2004 (UTC)) Ah, excellent: you've managed to see the point: V+G is too recent. But its older than von S.

Thank you for your compliments. Things can be recent, but they will not be recent in the future. I think that you know very well that in a couple of years, when the dust settles, Mann et al. most likely won't be viewed as a good piece of work. You just try to slow this process down.--Lumidek 12:40, 15 Nov 2004 (UTC)

MM05

Redirected discussion from Talk:Global_warming

I think that there is going to be a storm of controversity when MM05 is published in February.

The Financial Post:

Breaking the Hockey Stick - Part 1

http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=108c0400-4e71-4c55-a279-dd43aed1f224

The lone Gaspe cedar - Part II

http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=052554eb-ebdb-483a-8f28-c4ce19458973

--D Norris 15:43:55, 29 Jan 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 16:30, 29 Jan 2005 (UTC)) Thats nice. Lets wait till its actually published though shall we? And lets remember that the MBH results are replicated by independent studies too, shall we? Since we're all recommneding our favourite reading, I recomment to you http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=114, http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=111 and indeed many of the other posts at RealClimate.

For those that want a sneak peak at what is being published in Geophysical Research Letters next month: http://www.climate2003.com/pdfs/2004GL012750.pdf GRL, by the way, published Mann in 99 as well. --D. Norris 17:25, Jan 29, 2005 (UTC)

Hmmmmm ----

In January, 2005, an adapted version of McIntyre and McKitrick's paper was accepted for publication by Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). Judging by the reactions of the referees of GRL, which McIntyre made available to us, the tide may be turning in the climatology field. One referee stated: "S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick have written a remarkable paper on a subject of great importance. What makes the paper significant is that they show that one of the most important and widely known results of climate analysis, the 'hockey stick' diagram of Mann et al.,was based on a mistake in the application of a mathematical technique known as principal component analysis (PCA)."

The same referee also writes: "McIntyre and McKitrick found a non-standard normalization procedure in the Mann et al. analysis. Their paper describes this procedure; it was an apparently innocent one of normalization, but it had a major effect on their results. The Mann et al. normalization tends to significantly increase the variance of data sets that have the hockey-stick shape. In the Mann et al. data set, this turned out to be bristlecone pines in the western United States. Thus the hockey stick plot, rather than representing a true global average of climate for the past thousand years, at best represented the behavior of climate in the western U.S. during that period. This is an astonishing result. I have looked carefully at the McIntyre and McKitrick analysis, and I am convinced that their work is correct."

The referee ends with: "I urge you not to shy away from this paper because of its potential controversy. The whole field of global warming is currently suffering from the fact that it has become politicized. Science really depends for its success on an open dialogue, with critics on both sides being heard. McIntyre and McKitrick present a cogent analysis of the global warming data. They do not conclude that global warming is not a problem; they don't even conclude that the medieval warm period really was there. All they do is correct the analysis of prior workers, in a way that must ultimately help us in our understanding of past climate, and predictions of future climate. That makes this a very important paper. I strongly urge you to publish it." - The lone Gaspe cedar [6]

--D. Norris 19:01, Jan 29, 2005 (UTC)

I discuss the article MM05 on my blog [7] which also contains the links to the paper itself, and articles about it. Maybe we should try to be nice to these people. They will definitely be in an existential crisis. Starting from February, they may have no future. They will be identified as the leaders of the most costly scientific fraud in the history of the humankind. I think that M&M will become pretty famous. Many people experienced in statistics will quickly follow, and they will most likely identify the problems with all the other similar climate papers. These papers are not really independent. They share the same authors and the same methods, so my guess is that they will collapse easily - the main "argument" behind them was a "consensus" - a consensus among the people neither of which bothered to verify the key calculations. A consensus among very weak scientists. In fact, Mann et al. was the most transparent paper where the algorithm they used to obtain the results could be partially followed. Other papers are much worse. If someone predicted that Mann will commit suicide before March 2005, it would be hard for me to argue against it. It is certainly much much more likely than a climatic disaster in the next 50 years. ;-) This guy is kind of doomed, and William's situation is not much better. William, please don't give up your life - and enjoy the last weeks of your life in which the people are not spitting at you on the street. ;-) There is always a chance for you to start a new life - a life without scientific fraud. All the best, Luboš --Lumidek 20:44, 29 Jan 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 21:12, 29 Jan 2005 (UTC)) I suggest you read the RealClimate posts.

Dear William, be sure that I've read them - although an outsider, I am simply interested in this topic. Having read them does not imply that they make as much sense as the new paper by M&M which is pretty brilliant and powerful. Your article on rc.org are pretty lousy, they have really nothing to do with the technical findings of M&M, and you must really believe that all other people are complete idiots if you think that they won't be able to identify whether MM or rc.org make more sense. Enjoy the last weeks of your consensus of lies! Saddam also tried to enjoy the last weeks. ;-) --Lumidek 21:35, 29 Jan 2005 (UTC)

More from The Financial Post: http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=db3b26e9-edb9-417c-ab92-fa78432433bf

For instance, in 2004, scientists in the journal Geophysical Research Letters concluded that Mann and Jones' methods were "just bad science" and that they had undertaken a "selective and inappropriate presentation" of results.

In June, of 2004, the accumulated weight of criticisms led to a retraction by Mann (and Scott Rutherford) in the Journal of Geophysical Research. However, while Mann admits to substantially underestimating historical temperature variations he claimed that it had no effect on his conclusions.

If even one component of Mann and Jones' -- and, consequently, the IPCC's -- temperature reconstruction is in error, then we can't say with any confidence that the 1990s were the warmest decade of the last two millennia, or that 1998 was the warmest year, much less that the last century's rise in temperature is unprecedented.

How interesting! --D. Norris 13:33, Feb 1, 2005 (UTC)

Current

Dear Gentlemen, I hope that many of you will agree that the label ((current)) is gonna be pretty appropriate for this page. ;-) --Lumidek 03:17, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 09:54, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)) Who knows, it might be one day, but it certainly isn't now.

Dear William, that's a great strategy to postpone all these things, hide, combine, and recombine your defense. But remember that February only has 28 days. ;-) For others - this "current" was partly a joke, and if it's difficult to keep it, don't waste much time with it. But if they publish MM05 and something starts to happen, the tag may be appropriate. --Lumidek 14:54, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 15:17, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)) These pages are controversial enough. Wasting time starting joke edit wars is inexcusable.

I have not started any edit war. As someone who cares about your doomed future, I'm just slowly preparing you for what is gonna happen very soon. ;-) BTW have you heard the sad news plus good news from Virginia that finally they stopped him and I must still wait for my 10,000 dollars? ;-) --Lumidek 15:29, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 16:39, 31 Jan 2005 (UTC)) Hopefully you haven't, but Norris seems to be blindly following you, before realising you were only joking. As for Virginia... what are you talking about?

I never blindly follow anyone. If I did, I would blindly accept the pronouncements of the IPCC and march in lock step with the 'scientific consensus', but I was trained to question everything, especially the opinions of the herd.

I happen to think that this topic is going to start changing very rapidly in the next month and warrents a 'current' disclaimer. But I am willing to wait for MM05 to be published.

Oh, BTW, it is 'Ms Norris' to you, Doctor! But if you are polite, you can call me Denise. --D. Norris 13:40, Feb 1, 2005 (UTC)

You made a mistake by re-inserting Lumideks joke but are too graceless to admit it. Noted the Ms.

I agree with Lumidek 100% on the use of 'Current'. Please allow me to refresh your memory as to his exact words:

For others - this "current" was partly a joke, and if it's difficult to keep it, don't waste much time with it. But if they publish MM05 and something starts to happen, the tag may be appropriate.

Hmmmm... I admit everything with aplomb and grace. --D. Norris 19:50, Feb 1, 2005 (UTC)

Perhaps all of you want to read why the "current label" was invented: Template talk:Current. IMHO the number of edits is by far not on the same level as 11 March 2004 Madrid attacks and thus does not justify the current tag. -- mkrohn 00:08, 2 Feb 2005 (UTC)

The introduction

This article needs an introduction. The name "Temperature record of the past 1000 years" implies objective fact - as if there were an actual, documented record of temperatures over the past millenium. However, this article is simply a collection of theories. This needs to be stated clearly and unequivocally in the introduction.--JonGwynne 01:11, 8 Feb 2005 (UTC)

I tend to agree that the old introduction is not the best one, but I also think that the current one is not better. We don't need to explain what a theory is, better link to theory instead. Also I wonder about the usage of the word "assumption" in your text "the assumption by scientists of what the temperature record may have been". May I ask what your background in science is? As I said changing the current intro is fine with me, but the one your propose sounds strange to me - sorry -- mkrohn 01:50, 8 Feb 2005 (UTC)

I agree that we don't need to explain what theories are, but we do need to explain that this page is theory and not fact. The title makes it sound like fact and not theory. If you have a better idea for an intro that explains this, then feel free to add it or change mine to suit. But, I'll take another crack at it for now since there has to be one.--JonGwynne 01:55, 8 Feb 2005 (UTC)

Moberg et al.

I am not going to try to make any changes to this or related articles myself, because frankly this battleground is no fun to play in, but I would like to point out the paper by Moberg et al. appearing in today's Nature (Feb. 10, 2005). The link is [8] for those with online access to Nature.

The paper is an attempt to redo the temperature history of the last 1000 years based on what the authors regard as a growing recognition that the methodology of Mann et al. and similar studies systematically surpress centennial scale variability. Their results, using a revised methodology, show both a medieval warm period and a little ice age. They are also consistent with the scale of natural variability reported from borehole measurements, while Mann et al. wasn't. However, they still regard the warming during the last several decades as unprecedented and inconsistent with natural variability.

Dragons flight 18:55, Feb 10, 2005 (UTC)

For those who have no access to nature: the graph is similar to Image:GlobwarmNH.png with the two exceptions that "Dragons flight" already pointed out: the graph which shows years 0-2000 touches 0 degree about 1000 AD and goes down to about -0.7 degree around 1600 AD. It seems (though I am not an expert) that the graph is a refinement of Mann et al. but tells us qualitatively the same thing. Quote from the paper: "We find no evidence for any earlier periods in the last two millennia with warmer conditions than the post-1990 [...]" -- mkrohn 19:44, 10 Feb 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 21:05, 10 Feb 2005 (UTC)) I haven't read it, but probably will tomorrow. I presume its good science - Nature usually is - but I would like to caution that wiki is an encyclopedia; a place for well-considered results; and things just-published don't usually belong (arguably the von S stuff falls into this category, but I know the howls of protest that would occur if I tried to remove it :-).

Hockey Stick disinformation

This article needs attention. The discredited theories of "hockey stick" created by the "hockey team" should be rewritten as a historical discussion of the myths that were believed at various points, and the more correct and up-to-date sources like Moberg et al. and M&M should replace the "mainstream" discussion. Best, Lubos --Lumidek 01:51, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 09:51, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)) Thank you for making your biases so obvious.

You may call it "biases", but the more important thing is that it is reality. This article has been kind of completely flawed, and it is necessary to re-make the whole text. --Lumidek 15:01, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)

I don't feel as strongly as Lumidek apparently does, but I do think that the presentation of this article needs some attention. I am inclined to think that this article would be better served if it moved away from the hockey-stick / not-a-hockey-stick mentality. MBH was a first effort in this field and there have been a variety of improvements and criticisms since then. It would probably be better to focus on what are the range of temperature reconstructions that people are considering today. In particular, MBH shouldn't be the only temperature plot on this page. I realize that there are links to other reconstructions on this page and associated discussion, but by only showing the MBH plot, it gives the implied impression that this is the only important view. I have in mind something like a nicer version of figure 1 from this page [9]. Dragons flight 21:43, Feb 11, 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 21:56, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)) I'm quite happy to de-emphasise the "hockey stick", and thoroughly agree with your "mentality" comment above. I wanted a pic showing all (or most) of the recons but couldn't find one; is the pic you point to usable in wiki? It would be nice if it was.

Moberg et al

(William M. Connolley 21:58, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)) And if anyone wants my take on Moberg, which I've just read, try: http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/02/moberg-et-al-highly-variable-northern.html.

personal attacks

Lumidek, the discussion is already heated enough and it is completely unneccessary to make the situation worse by personal attacking others. Stopping this would be helpful, thanks. -- mkrohn 13:56, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC) (see Wikipedia:Wikiquette and in particular Assume good faith).

I don't think that the discussion is as intense (and heated) as what I would find appropriate. What the "hockey team" has done is very serious. By the way: This particular article is mostly flawed, it will need a serious reconstruction. I am assuming good faith of Wikipedians, but I am not forced to assume good faith of criminals and the people who don't follow the rules of scientific integrity. --Lumidek 15:04, 11 Feb 2005 (UTC)

Lumidek, are you aware of the fact that M&M have been wrong (in painfully obvious ways, e.g. the radians/degrees debacle) before? And funny enough, whenever one mistake is pointed out, they use a different method to come to the same conclusion... I would not put much trust into their claimed results before the paper has been discussed for some time. Certainly not enough to accuse Mann et al of being "criminals". --Stephan Schulz 03:01, 13 Feb 2005 (UTC)

You are aware that Mann et al. seem to be indulging in the same method to defend their hockey stick? Whenever one error is pointed out they show that the hockey stick can be salvaged if you do something slightly different. And I believe that MM have been fairly consistent with their argument about the data-mining nature of the MBH algorithm (red noise in --> hockey stick out) and demonstrating that MBH's hockey stick is the result of a programming error. At any rate, past errors are not relevant - what is relevant is whether the current work has errors in it. -- John Simon (not registered, just watching from a dispassionate distance)

I am a scientist (and hence read and write a lot of scientific papers), but not a climate scientist (hence much of the specific math is beyond me). However, from what I have read, the older errors in MBH are mostly minor. The McKitrick et al errors, on the other hand, are real whoppers (using the vector norm as an average for temperature (thermodynamic nonsense), using non-absolute temperatures for that (mathematical nonsense), confusing radians and degrees, mistaking correlation and causation in a crass manner, and so on). I used to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after I looked over some of the older McKintrick papers (and commentary) yesterday, I lost all faith in whatever they do. --Stephan Schulz 22:22, 13 Feb 2005 (UTC)

(William M. Connolley 21:18, 13 Feb 2005 (UTC)) MBH haven't accepted any of M&M's points as affecting their results, but some of McK's errors have been too obvious for him to fail to accept. And you're wrong about the red-noise stuff: that wasn't in their earlier paper(s?). "programming error" is wrong BTW - if its an error - MBH don't accept it is - its methodological, not a bug. (Disclaimer: I'm part of http://www.realclimate.org).

New figure for article

I have created and uploaded the following image.

Details are included on the image description page. I will let other people decide how to use it in this article. Dragons flight 01:59, Feb 13, 2005 (UTC)

Wow, this looks great, thankt! Would it be doable to make two more plots with 4 resp. 5 functions in each image? I think this would improve readability, as having all 9 functions in one image is very confusing. -- mkrohn 02:19, 13 Feb 2005 (UTC)