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Iraq disarmament crisis

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As part of its War on Terrorism, the United States in 2002 is considering invading Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein from power.

Iraq has been accused of secretly building weapons of mass destruction. Substantial evidence exists (see links below) that chemical weapons and nerve gas were manufactured and used by Iraq internally against Kurdish villages and against Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. After the Gulf War, it was subjected to inspections by the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM), which was headed by Rolf Ekeus and later Richard Butler. In 1998, after more than seven years of inspections, Iraq charged that the commission was a cover for US espionage and refused UNSCOM access to certain sites. Although Ekeus has said that he resisted attempts at such espionage, many allegations have since been made against Butler, see for example [1] or [2]. Butler has vehemently denied the charges. Amidst controversy, Butler withdrew the UNSCOM team for safety reasons ahead of US bombing.

Former UNSCOM weapons inspector Scott Ritter has been vocal in insisting that, although Iraq made every attempt to lie about their possession and use of weapons of mass destruction, the United Nations inspections were nevertheless effective. He states that, as of 1998, 90-95% of Iraq's nuclear, biological, and chemical capabilities, and long-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering such weapons, had been verified as destroyed. Technical 100% verification was not possible, claims Ritter, not because Iraq still had any hidden weapons, but because Iraq had pre-emptively destroyed some stockpiles and claimed they had never existed. (Iraq's concerted campaign of deception was ironically ultimately responsible for their inability to unambiguously prove compliance.) As of August 2002, he is actively campaigning against an invasion, and challenging the Bush administration to make public any evidence that Iraq has rebuilt the capabilities which were destroyed under the auspices of UNSCOM. Says Ritter, "If Iraq was producing weapons today, we would have definitive proof."

Most nations that were allies of the United States during the Gulf War are either opposed to the projected US invasion or reluctant to help with it. Many argue that Iraq has no connection to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. When President of the United States George W. Bush toured Europe in June, 2002, tens of thousands of people protested his presence. German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder made his opposition to the invasion an issue in his electoral campaign. In early August, 2002, public support in the United States for an invasion was subdued.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee of the United States Senate held hearings on the proposed invasion July 31 and August 1, 2002. Richard Butler testified that there was indeed a threat. Other issues discussed were cost, whether or not former allies of the United States from the Gulf War would support the invasion and whether or not congressional approval was legally necessary to authorize an invasion.

Bush's legal advisors argue that he has the legal authority to invade Iraq without the approval of Congress. The Constitution grants the power of declaring war to Congress, but past presidents, particularly since World War II, have often ordered military action in the absence of such a declaration. In 1973, amid increasing domestic controversy about the Vietnam War, Congress passed the War Powers Resolution to limit the ability of the president to undertake prolonged military action. No president since has recognized the constitutionality of this act, and most legal scholars believe it would not survive a challenge in court. Moreover, even if congressional approval were required, the Bush administration may argue that approval has already been granted by the Persian Gulf Resolution of Jan 12, 1991, and the resolution of September 14, 2001, which authorized military action against terrorism.

In early August Dick Cheney met with leaders of the Iraqi opposition groups, pledging that the Bush Administration intended to replace Saddam Hussein with a democratic government. Dick Cheney in his role as Vice President of the United States has taken the lead in advocating an invasion, maintaining that it is foolish to wait until Iraq has completed constuction of a nuclear weapon. Condoleeza Rice and House Majority Whip Tom DeLay have also been vocal in urging an invasion.

There is no obvious way for the United States to remove Saddam Hussein from power short of a full-scale invasion. Saddam's whereabouts are too effectively kept secret for an assassination attempt, and U.S. law in any case prohibits targeting foreign leaders for assassination. An internal military coup is improbable, given that Saddam has surrounded himself with Republican Guard toops, the most loyal, best trained, and best equipped troops in the country. Finally a small invasion force attempting to quickly seize Baghdad runs a serious risk of failure, as Iraq appears to be fortifying the capital for street to street fighting.

Military planning for an invasion seems to focus on use of bases in eastern Turkey, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait and possibly Kurdish areas in northern Iraq. In the case of Qatar, despite being the site of an American base, the government has expressed its opposition to participating in an invasion although no actual request has been made of it by the United States. Turkey is also beginning to show reservations, fearing that a power vacuum after Saddam's defeat will give rise to a Kurdish state.

There is division both within the Bush administration and among senior Republican leaders as to the wisdom of an invasion of Iraq with those with diplomatic experience and reponsibilities such as Henry Kissinger, James A. Baker III, Lawrence Eagleburger, Brent Scowcroft, and Colin Powell being most skeptical.

Online reports summarizing evidence of Iraqi chemical weapons production and use:

According to Physicians for Human Rights, evidence exists that Iraq has manufactured and used nerve gas:
The American Federation of Scientists also present detailed information regarding Iraq's manufacture and use of various chemical weapons and nerve agents:
Satellite imagery evidence exists which shows plants used to manufacture precurser chemical components of chemical weapons have been rebuilt and allowed to sit idle:
Victims eyewitness accounts of the effects of chemical weapons used by Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war:
BBC's summary of UN reported evidence:
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