Talk:Inverse gambler's fallacy

First, I don't think we need to be taking stances on whether inferences to multiple worlds do or do not commit the inverse gambler's fallacy. There is supposed to be a little neutrality, especially when it comes to controversial philosophical issues. That's why I originally just said "Defenders of the argument under criticism usually appeal to an observational selection effect that, allegedly, makes all the difference. But it would take us far afield to address this response." There is no need to try to solve everything.

Second, the stance taken doesn't even make sense to me. The article now says that, since the universe is a specified run, then it's not a fallacy to infer multiple universes. But the fact that the universe is a specified run supports the claim that the fallacy is committed, it doesn't undermine it.

From the article: "The multiple universe hypothesis makes it more likely that life-permitting constants turn up in some universe or another. But it does not affect the probability that they turn up here in our universe (on this specified 'run'); that probability remains as low as it ever was."

A general, non-specified existence claim is confirmed. But the non-general, specified existence claim is not confirmed. Arguing that life-permission is just such a specified existence claim therefore undermines the inference to many universes.

DrRetard

I find the topic interesting, although somehow I find the discussion (both in the article and here on the talk page) difficult to follow. I studied probability and statistics in high school, and I know how to do simple calculations about lottery tickets and whether I'm safer in a car or an airplane.

Is this topic related somehow to the likelihood that God exists or not? --Ed Poor

No. My understanding of this article is this: there is a commonly-used argument that goes roughly "it's highly improbable that life came to be in the universe -- surely then, something must have put it in motion." This is fallacious reasoning. That does not mean god does not exist, or that god does exist -- it merely says that one argument is not valid. -- Tarquin

The original article as I understood it implied that said argument was valid. When you read it for the first time (a few hours ago) I had probably already rewritten its end and turned its conclusion upside down. Actually, I've had the impression that the whole original article just aimed at introducing and justifying that argument; hence the thing looses cohesion if the conclusion is reversed. But I'm quite sensitive on the invalidity of that argument, so my reading may be biased. -- FvdP 17:39 Oct 8, 2002 (UTC)

(but see below) -- FvdP 18:32 Oct 8, 2002 (UTC)

There are two different arguments that can be said to fall under "inverse gambler's fallacy":

a "proof" that multiple universes exist
a counterargument to the following theist argument that God exists: "it's highly improbable that life came to be in the universe -- surely then, something must have put it in motion."

These things are quite different. The fallacy may or may not apply to 1 (multiple universes), it probably does, I'm not definitely sure. What I (FvdP) and (I thought) Hacking are after is its application to 2 (God's existence), and there I stand that the inverse gambler's fallacy clearly does not apply. My guess is that the misunderstaning between us (FvdP & DrRetard) is mainly a misunderstanding about whether the article's arguments address point 1 (multiple universes) or point 2 (God's existence).

Now point by point:

First, I don't think we need to be taking stances on whether inferences to [multiple worlds or God's existence] do or do not commit the inverse gambler's fallacy ? Yes we should, because by presenting Hacking's argument, the article is taking stance anyway.

Second, the stance taken doesn't even make sense to me. The article now says that, since the universe is a specified run, then it's not a fallacy to infer multiple universes. But the fact that the universe is a specified run supports the claim that the fallacy is committed, it doesn't undermine it. I agree with you that applied to the multiple universes hypothesis, my stance does not make sense. But as explained above, it was really about God's existence (in my intent at least).

Actually, I must confess (after a few readings of the article) that I don't understand Hacking's point. Would he be actually fighting on 1 (against multiple words) rather than 2 (for the "fine-tuning" pro-God argument) ? (Or is he by chance equating the two questions ?)

My point is really about this: "and if there are, then life-permitting constants had to come up somewhere or another, why not here?: I say "why not here ? But simply because we are here ! the choice of our universe, because it's by definition the choice of a universe where life exists, is biased towards finding fine-tuned universe parameters (regardless of the existence of a designer)". It's like stopping on the next dice run that issues a 6-6. That surely increases the probability of someone seing a 6-6.

Probability arguments for or against God's existence lead us in muddy waters anyway ;-)

FvdP 18:32 Oct 8, 2002 (UTC)