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2006 Texas gubernatorial election

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Template:Future election The Texas gubernatorial election of 2006 will be a race for the Governor of Texas. Whomever is elected on November 7, 2006 will serve between 2007 and 2011.

What was initially a two-person race to be decided in the Republican primary, with the winner being almost assured of becoming Governor (Texas has become increasingly Republican in recent years), has now splintered into a potential four-way free-for-all involving:

  • a Republican incumbent with poor poll ratings but exceptionally strong support within his party,
  • his bitter political enemy choosing to face him as an independent instead of during the Republican primary,
  • a Texas music icon, also running as an independent, with surprising success to date, and
  • a Democratic Party candidate, facing a difficult task of winning in a strong Republican state.

However, this is contingent on both independent candidates obtaining enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot (see below).

The party primaries will be held on March 7, 2006 (among the earliest in the nation), with runoffs (if necessary) held approximately one month later.

The Landscape

The Incumbent

Incumbent Rick Perry was elevated to the position in late 2000 from Lieutenant Governor upon the election of then-Governor George W. Bush as President of the United States. Perry was subsequently elected Governor in his own right in 2002, and will run for a second full term in 2006.

Perry's overall poll ratings have plummeted since the 2002 election, plagued by budget woes, battles over school financing reform, and a contentious redistricting battle. Perry's approval rating dropped to 38% during the latter part of the 2005 legislative session, but rebounded to 49% and then fell to 46%, with 48% disapproving. [1] The boost is widely attributed to his response to Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and Hurricane Rita in September 2005. Despite the poor polling numbers, Perry has immense support within the Texas Republican Party. Perry has endorsements from virtually the entire Texas Republican Congressional delegation, nearly every other Republican statewide officeholder, 51 of the 62 members of the Texas Republican Party executive committee, and nearly every major pro-business, fiscal conservative, and social conservative organization and political action committee in Texas. Perry has even managed to gain the endorsement of the Teamsters Union, and is expected to be endorsed by his predecessor, President George W. Bush.

With his chief rival choosing to run as an independent candidate (see below), Perry now faces what is generally considered to be only token opposition in the Republican primary, thus saving time (and funds) for the November general election.

The Rival

The main race was expected to be the Republican primary involving Perry and popular State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, bitter political enemies, with the winner almost assured of becoming Governor. Notwithstanding Strayhorn's general popularity (and Perry's poor polling numbers), the December 2005 Scripps Howard Texas Poll of matchups had Perry in the lead against Strayhorn by a 55%-24% margin (Perry's strength is primarily among groups with above-average participation in the political process, such as those affiliated with the religious right, and who would turn out for a primary election to ensure his success).

Seeing a potential slaughter in the primary, Strayhorn decided to instead run as an independent candidate, changing the political calculus considerably and setting up the potential for a four-way free-for-all in November. Strayhorn is perceived to be more popular among Texans at large than among those who vote in primary elections (many of whom, as stated above, are members of groups who have endorsed Perry). However, candidates outside the traditional two parties have had a hard time garnering support (only one independent candidate, Sam Houston, has ever become Governor of Texas).

The Icon

Kinky Friedman, another independent candidate, is gaining a considerable bit of popular support among independent voters. He counts country-music lovers, college students, animal lovers, and ranchers among his supporters, though it remains to be seen how these constituencies will actually vote for him, and with Strayhorn now running as an independent, whether she will draw candidates away from him.

The Democrats

Chris Bell, a former Congressman from Houston, leads the field of Democrats vying for the gubernatorial nod. He is most known for his filing of an ethics complaint against former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay as a lame duck who had been defeated in his party's primary after the contraversial mid-decade partisan redistricting in the state. Bell announced his run in July 2005, long before most of the field. Bob Gammage, a former associate justice of the state supreme court and former Congressman from Houston, is best known for actions from previous decades, as a member of the anti-corruption Dirty Thirty, who are credited with bringing down the State House Speaker and other state officials mired in a scandal in 1971. Bell leads Felix Alvarado, another announced Democratic candidate, 23%-14% with 60% undecided in the Democratic primary (Gammage was not included in that poll).

The Democrats are expected to have a difficult time winning, even in a two-candidate race and despite Perry's poor polling numbers, as Texas has become increasingly Republican in recent years. (The only opposition the Republicans will face in some statewide judicial races will be from the Libertarian Party.) It remains to be seen whether the potential addition of one, or possibly two, independent candidates will take votes away from Perry and/or the Democratic Party candidate.

Other Candidates

In addition to Friedman and Strayhorn, four minor candidates have filed notices of intent to run as independent candidates.

The Libertarian Party has also fielded a candidate for governor.

Although the list below shows the Constitution Party as having a fielded candidate (and the candidate has a website), based on information currently available from the Texas Secretary of State's office, the Constitution Party is not recognized as having "ballot access". According to the Secretary, ballot access for a third party requires either 1) five percent of the vote in the last statewide election or 2) the support of the same number of voters as required for an independent candidate. Per information on its website only the Libertarian Party has gained ballot access.

Requirements for Independent Gubernatorial Candidates

It is difficult, though not impossible, for an independent gubernatorial candidate to gain ballot access in the state of Texas. The election law, summarized briefly, requires the following:

  • The candidate must obtain signatures from registered voters, in an amount equalling at least one percent of the total votes cast in the prior gubernatorial election. For the 2006 ballot, this would require 45,540 signatures.
  • The signatures must come from registered voters who did not vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries (or in any runoff elections). (Formal party affiliation is not required in Texas as in some states; any voter may vote in either party primary, but must choose one or the other. Also, a person may vote in a runoff election even if s/he did not vote in the initial primary.)
  • The signatures must come from registered voters who have not signed a petition for any other independent candidate. In other words, a Strayhorn supporter cannot also sign Kinky's petition and vice versa. Duplicative signatures do not count for either candidate.
  • The signatures must be obtained within 60 days following the primary election (which will be held on March 7, 2006); if either party goes into a runoff the window shortens to 30 days following the runoff election.

Analysis

An incumbent such as Perry below 50% approval, especially with more people disapproving of his job performance than approving of it, within a year of the general election is typically considered to be in danger of being voted out of office. However, the extreme weakness in the Texas Democratic Party, Perry's strong support within the Texas Republican Party, along with the independent vote being potentially split between Friedman and Strayhorn, may allow Perry to win re-election. In a hypothetical general election, Perry would get 46% of the vote to Bell's 25% and Friedman's 13%. [2] No polling is yet available on the outcome of a potential four-way race involving Perry, Friedman, Strayhorn, and Bell or any other Democratic candidate.

Candidates

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

  • Richard "Kinky" Friedman - Country Music Singer, Mystery Author, and Jewish Cowboy
  • Carole Keeton Strayhorn - State Comptroller, Ex-Railroad Commissioner & Ex-Austin School Board President, spent June through December of 2005 seeking the Republican nomination

Libertarian Party

See also


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