2004 Atlantic hurricane season
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The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2004, and will last until November 30, 2004. Experts on hurricane climatology have predicted that the season will have more numerous and more intense storms than average. It is a more interesting hurricane season than usual, with the fifth-latest start since 1952, and the first instance since 1906 of two tropical systems (Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley) striking the same state (Florida) in a 24 hour period.
| Category | m/s | knots | mph | km/h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ≥ 70 | ≥ 137 | ≥ 157 | ≥ 252 |
| 4 | 58–70 | 113–136 | 130–156 | 209–251 |
| 3 | 50–58 | 96–112 | 111–129 | 178–208 |
| 2 | 43–49 | 83–95 | 96–110 | 154–177 |
| 1 | 33–42 | 64–82 | 74–95 | 119–153 |
| TS | 18–32 | 34–63 | 39–73 | 63–118 |
| TD | ≤ 17 | ≤ 33 | ≤ 38 | ≤ 62 |
Pre-season forecasts
On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of above-normal activity, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength. On August 6, however, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing warmer oceans, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3. [1]
A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.
Events
March
Although not part of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season, one event in the South Atlantic was so unusual as to merit inclusion here.
On March 25, a tropical cyclone (unofficially named Catarina) formed in the South Atlantic. Although its status is questioned, Catarina is considered to be the first hurricane to have formed in the South Atlantic since satellite observations began.
It made landfall late on March 27 in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. The storm killed at least three, and caused over 350 million USD in damage.
June
No named storms formed in June 2004. On average, June has a roughly 50% chance of having no named storms. This is not an indication of a quiet season, as even active seasons often have no named storms form in June.
July
- July 31 - 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression One forms 175 miles (280 km) south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
August
- August 1
- 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) - Tropical Depression One is upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex. The storm is centered 80 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
- August 3
- 2 am EDT (0600 UTC) - Tropical Storm Alex is upgraded to Hurricane Alex. The storm is centered 75 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.
- 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Hurricane Alex is upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. The storm is centered 40 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
- 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Depression Two forms near the Lesser Antilles, 460 miles (740 km) east of the Windward Islands.
- Hurricane Alex skirts the Outer Banks of North Carolina but does not make landfall.
- August 4
- 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression Two degenerates to a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
- August 5
- 5 am EDT (0900 UTC) - Hurricane Alex is upgraded to a category 3 hurricane. The storm is centered 625 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
- August 6
- 11 am AST (1500 UTC) - Hurricane Alex is classified as extratropical.
- August 9
- 1:45 pm AST (1745 UTC) - Tropical Depression Three forms near the Windward Islands, 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Grenada.
- 4 pm CDT (2100 UTC) - The remnants of Tropical Depression Two organize into Tropical Storm Bonnie in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
- August 10
- 5 am AST (0900 UTC) - Tropical Depression Three is upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
- August 11
- 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) - Tropical Storm Charley is upgraded to Hurricane Charley 90 miles (150 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.
- Hurricane Charley skirts the southern coast of Jamaica.
- August 12
- ca. 8 am EDT (1200 UTC) - Hurricane Charley passes between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman.
- ca. 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Storm Bonnie makes landfall near Apalachicola, Florida.
- 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) - Hurricane Charley reaches Category 2 intensity just northwest of the Cayman Islands.
- August 13
- Just after 12 am EDT (0400 UTC) - Hurricane Charley makes landfall in Cuba, crossing over land to the west of Havana.
- 11 am AST (1500 UTC) - Tropical Depression Four forms 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of Cape Verde.
- 1 pm EDT (1700 UTC) - Hurricane Charley reaches Category 3 (major) intensity 70 miles south-southwest of Fort Myers, Florida.
- 1:15 pm EDT (1715 UTC) - Hurricane Charley reaches Category 4 intensity.
- 4 pm EDT (2000 UTC) - Hurricane Charley makes landfall just north of Fort Myers, Florida.
- 5 pm AST (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression Five forms 1045 miles (1680 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
- Hurricane Charley crosses central Florida, striking Orlando.
- 11 pm AST (0300 UTC) - Tropical Depression Four strengthens into Tropical Storm Danielle 235 miles (375 km) south-southwest of Cape Verde.
- 11 pm EDT (0300 UTC) - Tropical Depression Bonnie is classified as extratropical.
- August 14
- 2 am EDT (0600 UTC) - Hurricane Charley exits Florida near Daytona Beach.
- 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Hurricane Charley makes landfall again near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
- 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) - Hurricane Charley is downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
- 5 pm AST (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression Five strengthens into Tropical Storm Earl 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.
- 11 pm AST (0300 UTC) - Tropical Storm Danielle is upgraded to Hurricane Danielle 375 miles (605 km) west of Cape Verde.
- August 15
- August 16
- 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Storm Earl degenerates to a tropical wave.
- August 18
- 11 am AST (1500 UTC) - Hurricane Danielle is downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
- August 20
- 5 pm AST (2100 UTC) - Tropical Storm Danielle is downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
Storms
Hurricane Alex
The first storm of the season formed at the end of July off the coast of South Carolina, providing 2004 with a late start to its hurricane season. Alex strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, and on August 3 came within 10 miles (16 km) of the Outer Banks of North Carolina without making landfall. Damage was limited to light flooding and wind damage, and in Dare County, North Carolina was estimated at $2.4 million. One minor injury was reported.
Alex then headed out to sea and strengthened to a 120 mi/h (195 km/h) Category 3 hurricane. Alex is only the second hurricane on record to have reached Category 3 strength north of 38N latitude. The other storm was Hurricane Ellen in the 1973 Atlantic hurricane season, and Alex was the stronger of the two.
Alex became extratropical over the north Atlantic, where it produced gale force winds. Alex's remnants sank the Pink Lady, a rowboat attempting to break the record for fastest crossing from St. John's, Newfoundland to Falmouth, Cornwall.
For more information, see Hurricane Alex (2004).
Tropical Storm Bonnie
On August 3, a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles organized into Tropical Depression Two. TD2 travelled west over the islands, and dissipated on August 4.
The remnants of Tropical Depression Two continued westward, and on August 9, had strengthened into Tropical Storm Bonnie 410 miles (660 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Although appearing disorganized, Bonnie showed unusual organization, with a closed eyewall and a 10 mile eye being reported by Hurricane Hunters on the night of August 9 and morning of August 10. As a NHC forecaster described it, they are "almost unheard of in a system of this intensity". Bonnie was a very small storm, with tropical storm-force winds extending only 30 miles out from the center.
Bonnie made landfall near Apalachicola, Florida around 11 am CDT (1600 UTC) on August 12 as a weakening tropical storm. Rain was fleeting with the landfall of the tropical system, as the Apalachicola area only experienced thunderstorms for a couple of hours. As Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression, it interacted with an approaching cold front, producing large amounts of rain along the East Coast of the United States. Bonnie then exited back into the Atlantic.
At 11 PM EDT August 13 (0300 UTC August 14), what was left of Bonnie had lost tropical characteristics and was positioned beyond the New England seaboard. Bonnie did cause significant rainfall to coastal North Carolina and the states of New England.
Three deaths in North Carolina have been attributed to tornadoes spawned by Bonnie.
See: NHC's public advisory archive for Tropical Storm Bonnie
Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Charley formed east of the Windward Islands on August 9 as Tropical Depression Three. As it moved rapidly across the Caribbean, it reached tropical storm strength. As it neared Jamaica, it became a hurricane, and grazed that island on August 11. It then passed between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman the next morning.
After passing the Cayman Islands, Charley passed just east of the Isle of Youth on August 12 before passing over mainland Cuba just west of Havana. On the morning of the August 13, Charley crossed the Dry Tortugas. Later the same day, as a category 4 hurricane with windspeeds of 145 mi/h (230 km/h), it made landfall just north of Fort Myers, Florida. It caused serious damage and numerous fatalities as it crossed Florida.
On August 14 it emerged into the Atlantic considerably weakened, and made landfall again near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. After running further up the US East Coast, Charley dissipated near Cape Cod, Massachusetts on August 15.
For more detail, see Hurricane Charley.
Hurricane Danielle
At 11am AST (1500 UTC) on August 13, a tropical wave formed into Tropical Depression Four 275 miles south-southeast of Cape Verde. Twelve hours later, TD4 strengthened and was named Tropical Storm Danielle. Late on August 14, Danielle's wind speeds increased, and it was classified as a hurricane. Danielle moved north-westwards, peaking at Category 2. It was predicted to curve towards the Azores, but on the 18th lost forward motion and slackened to a tropical storm. By the 19th it had become stationary, 810 miles (1305 km) southwest of the Azores at minimal storm strength.
As of 11am AST (1500 UTC) on August 20, Danielle is located 775 miles (1245 km) southwest of the Azores. Danielle has sustained winds of about 40 mi/h (65 km/h), close to reducing to a tropical depression, and is drifting slowly and erratically but generally northwards. It is now predicted to linger as a tropical depression (or even storm) with little motion for several more days.
For official forecasts, see the NHC's public advisory on Tropical Storm Danielle.
Tropical Storm Earl
Earl formed initially as the fifth tropical depression of the season on August 13, well east of the Lesser Antilles. After travelling west, it reached tropical storm strength on August 14 while 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.
On August 15 Earl passed just south of Grenada and entered the Caribbean Sea. The storm had degenerated by that point, and that night would have been classified as a tropical wave. However, the government of Venezuela denied access to their airspace for the storm reconaissance aircraft [2]. An on-site assessment of Earl's circulation was needed since satellite observations are inaccurate for that purpose. Earl also posed a threat to land, so advisories continued for another twelve hours.
The next morning, a reconnaissance aircraft was able to reach the storm. It found no closed circulation, and Earl was reclassified as a tropical wave at 11am AST (1500 UTC) August 16. The remnants of Earl continued across the Caribbean and into Central America.
See also: NHC's advisory archive for Tropical Storm Earl
2004 Hurricane names
The following names are being used for named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes) that form in the North Atlantic in 2004. Currently active storms are marked in bold. Names that have not yet been assigned are marked in gray.
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