Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game is a book by Michael M. Lewis in 2003 about the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, Billy Beane, and his team's approach to running the organization.

The central premise of Moneyball is that the collected wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and therefore flawed. Statistics like 0-60yd times, RBIs, and batting average that are typically used to gauge players are relics of a 19th-century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time.

Since then, real statistical analysis has shown that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success -- that avoiding an out is more important than getting a hit. Every on-field play can be evaluated in terms of expected runs contributed. e.g. A strike on the first pitch of an at-bat may be worth -.05 runs. (See also sabermetrics)

This flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and most of the men who are paid large sums to evaluate talent.

By re-evaluating the strategies that produce wins on the field, the Oakland A's, with ~$40 million in salary, are competitive with the Yankees who spend over $160 million anually on their players. Oakland is forced to find players undervalued by the market, and their system for finding value has proven itself so far.

Several Lewis themes are present: insiders vs. outsiders, the democratization of information causing a flattening of hierarchies, and the ruthless drive for efficiency that capitalism demands.

Publication Data

Lewis, Michael (Michael M.), Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2003, ISBN 0-393-05765-8 (hardcover).