2006 Blaenau Gwent by-elections
Template:Future election Two by-elections are to be held for the constituency of Blaenau Gwent in Wales following the death of Member of Parliament and Assembly Member Peter Law on April 25 2006. As Law was the MP and Assembly Member (AM), his death will require by-elections in both the parliamentary seat and the equivalant Welsh Assembly constituency. The two elections will poll on the same day, June 29, as will a by-election in Bromley and Chislehurst. A win by the Labour Party in the AM by-election would restore their majority in the Welsh Assembly, which was lost when Law was expelled from the party.[1]
Candidates
Westminster by-election
The writ for the UK Parliament by-election was moved on 6 June so that it will be held on the same date as the Assembly by-election, (29 June 2006).[2] Labour whips had reportedly pressed for the election to be held on May 25. The movement of the writ is more complicated because Law sat as an Independent, and therefore the convention that the party of the former member moves the writ cannot apply.[3] According to the precedent (when Denis Canavan resigned his Parliamentary seat at Westminster as an Independent), the whip of the governing party moves the writ.
Maggie Jones, the Labour candidate defeated by Law, will not be able to stand — she has been elevated to the House of Lords.[4] There had been speculation about an independent candidate running with the backing of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru,[5] but all three parties decided to contest the election.[1]
It has been reported that prior to Law's death the Labour Party had decided against selecting their candidate for the next general election with an all-women shortlist.[6] It was the use of such a shortlist for the 2005 general election that led to Law standing as an independent. Labour instead left the selection to the local party.[7] The Labour candidate, Owen Smith, was chosen on 8 May.[8][9] He is a former special adviser and BBC producer who works for a pharmaceutical company.[10]
The Liberal Democrat candidate is Amy Kitcher. The Conservatives are standing Margrit Williams, who works for Sir Malcolm Rifkind.[10] Peter Law's former agent Dai Davies is standing as an independent with the support of the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group.[11]
Despite contesting both the previous Assembly and Parliamentary elections, the United Kingdom Independence Party decided not to stand a candidate, instead calling for a vote for the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group - even though the Group does not support withdrawal from the European Union, nor the abolition of the Welsh Assembly, key UKIP policies.[12]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Dai Davies | ||||
| Monster Raving Loony | Alan "Howling Laud" Hope | ||||
| Liberal Democrats | Amy Kitcher | ||||
| Plaid Cymru | Steffan Lewis | ||||
| Labour | Owen Smith | ||||
| Conservative | Margrit Williams | ||||
| Majority | |||||
| Turnout | |||||
Welsh Assembly by-election
The Assembly by-election must be held within twelve weeks of the vacancy arising.[3] It was announced on 11 May 2006 that the Assembly by-election would be held on 29 June 2006.[2]
Labour have chosen John Hopkins, who had already been selected as their 2007 assembly election candidate, to contest the seat. John Price is expected to stand for Plaid Cymru.[1] The Liberal Democrats will field Steve Bard, a councillor in Abertillery.[8] The Conservative candidate will be Jonathan Burns, a Cardiff councillor.[10] Peter Law's widow, Trish Law, will stand as an independent backed by the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group.[11]
The Green Party will fight the Assembly election but not stand at Westminster [13]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | Steve Bard | ||||
| Conservative | Jonathan Burns | ||||
| Labour | John Hopkins | ||||
| No description | Trish Law | ||||
| Green | John Matthews | ||||
| Plaid Cymru | John Price | ||||
| Majority | |||||
| Turnout | |||||
Electorate and campaign timetables
The electorate for the constituency is 52,900 as quoted by the Returning Officer's Department of Blaenau Gwent Borough Council on May 14 2006 (-0.75% on the Westminster election and -0.05% on the Assembly election). The close of nominations for the Assembly constituency is on June 2; if the elections take place on the same day, the Westminster nominations will close on June 14.
Campaigns
On April 27 2006, BBC News published allegations by Peter Law's widow that Law had believed he would be in line for a peerage should he decide not to stand in the 2005 general election. The Labour Party denied that a peerage was offered.[7]
Welsh Secretary Peter Hain attempted to build bridges with Law's supporters by apologising for imposing an all-women shortlist and suggesting that those expelled from the Labour Party might be able to rejoin. This apology was rejected by Dai Davies, Peter Law's agent and putative successor, as coming too late and being a cynical ploy to try to win the by-elections.[8]
Opinion Polls
An opinion poll was conducted by NOP between May 24 and May 28 which asked 1,000 voters in the constituency how they would vote. The results were:
Westminster
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Dai Davies | 35% | |||
| Liberal Democrats | Amy Kitcher | 6% | |||
| Plaid Cymru | Steffan Lewis | 6% | |||
| Labour | Owen Smith | 47% | |||
| Conservative | Margrit Williams | 5% | |||
Assembly
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | Steve Bard | 6% | |||
| Conservative | Jonathan Burns | 3% | |||
| Labour | John Hopkins | 40% | |||
| Independent | Trish Law | 43% | |||
| Green | John Matthews | 2% | |||
| Plaid Cymru | John Price | 6% | |||
2005 UK Parliament result
The 2005 general election result was a gain for Peter Law as an independent candidate.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Peter Law | 20,505 | 58.2 | +58.2 | |
| Labour | Maggie Jones | 11,384 | 32.3 | −39.7 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Brian Thomas | 1,511 | 4.3 | −5.0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | John Price | 843 | 2.4 | −8.8 | |
| Conservative | Phillip Lee | 816 | 2.4 | −5.2 | |
| UKIP | Peter Osborne | 192 | 0.5 | +0.5 | |
| Majority | 9,121 | 25.9 | |||
| Turnout | 35,251 | 66.1 | +6.6 | ||
| Independent gain from Labour | Swing | +48.9 | |||
2003 Welsh Assembly constituency result
In 2003, Peter Law was re-elected as the Labour Assembly member for the Blaenau Gwent constituency. By announcing that he would stand as an Independent for the parliamentary constituency he expelled himself from the Labour Party (and the Labour Assembly grouping).
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | Peter Law | 13,884 | 70.2 | +9.4 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Steven Bard | 2,148 | 10.9 | −0.6 | |
| Plaid Cymru | Rhys Ab Elis | 1,889 | 9.6 | −11.6 | |
| Conservative | Barrie O'Keefe | 1,131 | 5.7 | +0.2 | |
| UKIP | Roger Thomas | 719 | 3.6 | +3.6 | |
| Majority | 11,736 | 59.4 | +18.7 | ||
| Turnout | 19,771 | 37.4 | −10.85 | ||
See also
References
- ^ a b c "Double poll looming in Law seat". BBC News. 2006-04-26. Retrieved 2006-04-26.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "Blaenau Gwent election date set". BBC. 2006-05-11. Retrieved 2006-05-11.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b Shipton, Martin (2006-04-26). "Outrage at bid for early by-election". Western Mail. Retrieved 2006-04-26.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Losing candidate will become peer". BBC News. 2006-04-11. Retrieved 2006-04-26.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "How to Defeat Blair in the Blaenau Gwent By Election". Iain Dale. 2006-04-25. Retrieved 2006-04-27.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Peter Law, rebel who had a cause". BBC News. 2006-04-25. Retrieved 2006-04-27.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "MP 'offered peerage' not to stand". 2006-04-27. Retrieved 2006-04-27.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b c "All-women list apology rejected". BBC News. 2006-05-08. Retrieved 2006-05-08.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Viagra-firm lobbyist to stand for Labour in Blaenau Gwent". icWales. 2006-05-09. Retrieved 2006-05-09.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b c "Parties pick by-election hopefuls". BBC News. 2006-05-09. Retrieved 2006-05-09.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "Widow gets People's Voice backing". BBC News. 2006-05-16. Retrieved 2006-05-16.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "UKIP Annnouces that it will not stand in Blaenau Gwent by-election". United Kingdom Independence Party. 2006-05-17. Retrieved 2006-06-09.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ http://www.by_elections.blogspot.com/