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Demographic history of Kosovo

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Ottoman Rule

1455: Turkish cadastral tax census (defter)9 of the Brankovic dynasty lands (covering 80% of present-day Kosovo and Metohija) recorded 480 villages, 13,693 adult males, 12,985 dwellings, 14,087 household heads (480 widows and 13,607 adult males). By ethnicity:

  • 12,985 Serbian dwellings present in all 480 villages and towns
  • 75 Vlach dwellings in 34 villages
  • 46 Albanian dwellings in 23 villages
  • 17 Bulgarian dwellings in 10 villages
  • 5 Greek dwellings in Lauša, Vučitrn
  • 1 Jewish dwelling in Vučitrn
  • 1 Croat dwelling

The Ottoman-Habsburg war (1683-1699) led to the flight of a substantial part of Kosovo's Serbian population to Austrian held Vojvodina and Krajina. Following this an influx of Muslim and Roman Catholic Albanian from the highlands (Malesi) occured, mostly into Metohija.

19th century data about the population of Kosovo tend to be rather conflicting, giving numerical superiority to either Serbs or Albanians.

A study in 1838 by an Austrian physician, dr. Joseph Müller found Metohija to be mostly Slavic (Serbian) in character. 10 Müller gives data for the three counties (Bezirk) of Prizren, Pec and Djakovica which roughly covered Metohija, the portion adjacent to Albania and most affected by Albanian settlers. Out of 195,000 inhabitants in Metohija, Müller found:

  • 73,572 Orthodox Serbs 38%
  • 5,120 Catholic Albanians 3%
  • 2,308 other non-Muslims (Vlachs etc.)
  • 114,000 Muslims (58%), of which:
    • c. 38,000 are Serbs (19%)
    • c. 76,000 are Albanians (39%)

Müller also gives an interesting perspective into the ethnic composition of towns and majority predispositions of the surrounding villages. The town of Peć according to Müller has a Muslim majority but the villages of the county of Peć are mostly Christian. The town itself is Slavic (Serbian) by tongue (11.050 of which 510 are Orthodox) with very few Albanians (500 of which 100 are Catholics). Consequently, the Peć town, villages and county overall are mostly Serbian. The town of Đakovica is the only majorically Albanian-Muslim town with the surrounding villages being overall mostly Christian (Orthodox) and Slavic (Serb). Prizren is a Serb-Orthodox town (16,800) with few Muslim Albanians (4000) and even less Catholic ones (2,150). The surrounding villages are mostly Slavic (Serbian) but Muslim (see Gorani).

Another study done in 1871 by Austrian colonel Peter Kukulj for the internal use of the Austro-Hungarian army showed that the mutesarifluk of Prizren (corresponding largely to present-day Kosovo and Metohija)) there was some 500,000 inhabitants, of which:

German scholar Gustav Weigand gave, in his turn, the following statistical data about the population of Kosovo in Ethnography of Macedonia (1924, written 1919):

Metohija with the town of Djakovica is furthermore defined as almost exclusively Albanian by Weigand.

Other 19th century ethnographers of the Balkans such as French G. Lejean12 Germans J. Hahn12 and H. Kiepert12, Austrian K. Sax12, Englishmen G. M. Mackenzie and A.P. Irby12,13 also identified Kosovo as predominantly Albanian. According to these, Serbs formed the majority of the population only of the regions of Mitrovica and Kosovo Polje, whereas western and eastern Kosovo were dominated by Muslim Albanians. Maps by above-mentioned ethnographers, as well as other maps of the Balkans may be found at 1 and 2

Note: The Ottoman Empire did not hold any census based on self-determination but had statistics using birth records. As these were consistently falsified to present the bulk of the population of the European part of the empire as Muslim, they cannot be used as a reliable source of statistical information.

Balkan Wars and World War I

Retaking of Kosovo by Serbia in 1912 resulting in supression of the local Albanian population and ethnic cleansning of some regions15.

  • 1921 439,010 total inhabitants6
  • 1929 Serbs: 61% Others 39%1
  • 1931 552,064 total inhabitants6
  • 1941 "Essentially unchanged"1

World War II

Most of the teritorry of today's province is occupied by Italian-occupied Greater Albania, massacres of some 10,000 Serbs, ethnic cleansing of about 100,0001 and settling of 70,000 of Albanians from Albania.

  • 1948: 727,820 total inhabitants5,6; 498,242 Albanians or 68.46%5
  • 1953: 524,559 Albanians or 65%5
  • 1961: 646,604 Albanians or 67.1%1,5

1968-1989: Autonomy

After the province gained autonomy, local provincial Statistical office given authority over census whereas the rest of the country's census was under the tutelage of the Federal Statistical Commission. Allegations of census rigging (for the 1971 and 1981) by Turk, Muslim and Roma minorities who claim forceful Albanization. Serb claims Albanians drastically overincreased their own numbers. Nothing could be substantiated though because the Kosovo Statistical offices were under exclusive Albanian control which was against the national norm at the time which dicated that census takers had to be of different nationalities (i.e. one Albanian and one Serb not both Albanian as was the case in the two following censa).

1971: 1,243,693 total inhabitants5,6

  • 916,168 Albanians or 73.7%1,5
  • 259,816 Serbs/Montengrins or 20.9%5; same below
  • 26,000 Muslims or 2.1%
  • 14,593 Roma or 1.2%
  • 12,244 Turks or 1.0%
  • 8,000 Croats or 0.7%

Albanians take ever-increasing control of Autonomous province with the introduction of the 1974 Constitution.

1,584,440 total inhabitants

  • 1,226,736 Albanians 77.42%
  • 236,525 Serbs/Montenegrins 14.93% 1,5,6

1989-1999: Centralized Yugoslav Control

Yugoslav Central Government reasserts control over Kosovo in 1989.

Official Yugoslav statistical results, almost all Albanians and some Roma, Muslims boyott the census following a call by Ibrahim Rugova to boycott Serbian institutions. 1991 359,346 Total population

Official Yugoslav statistical corrections and projections, with the help of previous census results (1948-1981):

1,956,196 Total population6 (corrected from 359,346)

  • 214,555 Orthodox Serbs (194,190 Serbians and 20,365 Montenegrins)
  • 1,596,072 or 81,6 % Albanians (corrected from 9,091)
  • 66,189 (Slavic) Muslims (corrected from 57,758)
  • 45,745 Roma (corrected from 44,307)
  • 10,445 Turks
  • 8,062 Croats (Janjevci, Letnicani)
  • 3,457 Yugoslavs

NATO Occupation

In 1999 during the Kosovo War, over 700,000 Albanians14 were driven out of the province to neighbouring Albania, Republic of Macedonia or Montenegro.

After the occupation of Kosovo by NATO in 1999, the returning Albanians have driven away a great number of non-Albanians to Serbia proper. Some 260,000 non-Albanians are ethnically cleansed 7,11.

2002 UN approximation. Total population 1.7 to 1.9 mn. 4

  • 88% Albanians (1,496,000 - 1,672,000)
  • 6% Serbs (102,000 - 114,000)
  • 3% Muslim Slavs (51,000 to 57,000)
  • 2% Roma (34,000 - 38,000)
  • 1% Turks (17,000 - 19,000).

The claim that the 1991 census overestimates the number of Albanians in Kosovo (i.e. 1,6 million) explains the discrepancies between the 2002 UN estimate (above) which gives circa 1,6 million Albanians in 2002 (following the complete liberalization of the Serbian-Albanian border and influxes which entail) and estimates by Albanian demographers who claim that 2,4 million Albanians live in Kosovo today.

References

1 Annexe I, by the Serbian Information Centre-London to a report of the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.
2 The International Criminal Tribunal For The Former Yugoslavia
3 Kosovo
4 UNMIK Fact Sheet on Kosovo
5 Official Yugoslav censa results 1948-1981
6 Center for Contemporary Journalism
7 Coordination Centre of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republic of Serbia for Kosovo and Metohija
8 Das Fürstenthum Serbien und Türkisch-Serbien, eine militärisch-geographische Skizze von Peter Kukolj, Major im k.k.Generalstabe, Wien 1871
9 The original Turkish-language copy of the census is stored in Istanbul's archives. However, in 1972 the Sarajevo Institute of Middle Eastern Studies translated the census and published an analysis of it Kovačević Mr. Ešref, Handžić A., Hadžibegović H. Oblast Brankovića - Opširni katastarski popis iz 1455., Orijentalni institut, Sarajevo 1972. Subsequently others have covered the subject as well suh as Vukanović Tatomir, Srbi na Kosovu, Vranje, 1986.
10 Dr. Joseph Müller, Albanien, Rumelien und die Österreichisch-montenegrinische Gränze, Prag, 1844
11UNHCR: 2002 Annual Statistical Report: Serbia and Montenegro, pg. 9
12Wilkinson, H.R. (1951). Maps and Politics; a review of the ethnographic cartography of Macedonia, Liverpool University Press.
13Georgena Muir Mackenzie and I.P. Irby, Travels in the Slavonic provinces of Turkey - in Europe, 1971.
14BBC: [1]
15 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (1914). Report of the International Commission To Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars. Washington: The Carnegie Endowment.
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