This page contains incomplete information on the latest election-day developments of the 2004 US presidential election. For a more in-depth discussion of the candidates and issues at stake in that election and the campaign history leading up to election day, see U.S. presidential election, 2004. For information on other national races conducted the same day, see U.S. Senate election, 2004 and U.S. House election, 2004. For an explanation of the U.S. presidential election process see U.S. Electoral College.
Events
Citizens in two small New Hampshire towns were the first to have their ballots counted in the 2004 U.S. presidential election. In Dixville Notch, the more famous of the two due to its longstanding tradition of early voting, the incumbent lost ground compared to his showing in 2000, but got more total votes than the challenger: Bush — 19, Kerry — 7. Bush also won the vote in Hart's Location, which managed to report its results slightly earlier this year; Bush — 16, Kerry — 14, and Nader — 1. (09:00 UTC, November 22004, Associated Press (Associated Press) (Reuters) In both cases this represented a small swing compared with the 2000 results from the Republican candidate to the Democratic candidate.
"U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens Tuesday allowed Republicans to challenge voter qualifications at the polls in Ohio, a key battleground state that could determine the presidential election. Stevens acted on an emergency request shortly before polls opened in Ohio and across the nation." He refused to set aside a U.S. appeals court order, issued Monday, which, reversing a lower court's ban, permitted political party members to challenge the credentials of potential voters at polling places across the state. -Reuters (Bloomberg)
Some reports say Florida, Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., (and possibly other states) have received record numbers of requests for absentee ballots for this election. Absentee ballots are counted differently based on the state [1], with most states counting them on election day, but with some exceptions, the last deadline being 10 days after the election (all Washington, D.C. absentee ballots, and overseas absentee ballots in Ohio and Florida). Washington State allows 15 days after the election for out of country absentee ballots to come in. It is possible that absentee ballots are being requested due to concerns about electronic voting, or simply due to an expected high overall voter turnout. [2][3]
Early exit polling shows strong Kerry battleground states edge [4]. Early exit polling has in the past tended to favor Republicans, though it favored Al Gore in several key states in the 2000 election.
Leroy Chiao, currently stationed on the International Space Station, cast his vote by encrypted e-mail and became the first American to vote in a presidental election from space.
Slate reports exit polls from ten states, with John Kerry winning in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico. Bush projected to win in Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado. Together with the polls from MyDD there are results from 34 states. Kerry leads with 192 electoral votes, while Bush has 152. [5]
Zogby [6] predicts a decisive 311 to 213 win for Kerry with 14 electoral votes too close to call.
CNN projects Indiana, Kentucky, and Georgia for Bush. Vermont is projected for Kerry. CBS and FoxNews concur. Based on these projections, the electoral vote is 34 for Bush, 3 for Kerry.
Yahoo! News is calling West Virginia for George W. Bush, making the projected electoral vote 39 for Bush, 3 for Kerry. CNN and NBC News both concur.
CNN projects Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee for President Bush; Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, DC, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine (except 2nd District), New Jersey, and Vermont for Senator Kerry: current electoral vote is 77-66, Kerry ahead.
NBC calls North Carolina for Bush, 81-77 for Bush
CNN (and ABC, and possibly others) projects South Carolina(8), Virginia(13), Kansas(6), Nebraska(4), North Dakota(3), South Dakota(3), Texas(34) and Wyoming(3) for president Bush, and New York(31) and Rhode Island(4) for senator Kerry. Projected count 155-112 for Bush. Acording to these numbers, both candidates have won the same states that their parties won in the 2000 election, but redistribution of districts means that the Democrats have lost 5 electoral votes and the Republicans have won 2 with respect to those elections.
CNN and ABC project Louisiana(9) and Mississippi(6) for the president, leaving the count at 170-112 for the incumbent.
FoxNewsChannel has Bush at 193-112 with Missouri(11), Arkansas(5) and Utah(5) now in the Bush column.
ABC has Bush at 196-112, with Montana (3) for the president with Bush ahead in swing states Florida, Ohio and way behind in Pennsylvania.
FoxNewsChannel says Bush has 75% chance of winning Florida
CBS, CNN and FoxNewsChannel call Pennsylvania for Kerry, 196-133 for Bush. Florida would give Bush 223
CNN projects California(55) for Kerry, Idaho(4) for Bush. 200-188 Bush in front (for ABC, as CNN has not called Montana).
ABC calls Arizona(10) for Bush. 210-188.
CNN won't call Florida but says Kerry camp is all but conceding there.
ABC has Bush 237-Kerry 188
ABC, BBC and CNN call Florida for Bush
On CNN, Bush re-election committee chair Marc Racicot says we'll have a result tonight, seemed quietly confident of victory in Ohio and generally. Kerry camp still optimistic about Ohio.
Kerry camp less optimistic now, according to FoxNews.
ABC says Bush 237 Kerry 195; Fox says Bush 246 Kerry 206
BBC, CNN, ABC and FoxNews call Colorado for Bush.
Votes still being cast in Ohio. Peter Snow for the BBC estimates a Bush 279 Kerry 259 result if Bush takes Ohio; Kerry 'could get through the winning post otherwise'.
Fox calls New Hampshire, plus 2nd Congressional District of Maine, for Kerry.
Fox calls Ohio for Bush.
BBC claims that the one Maine vote given to Bush has been given to Kerry, who now has all 4 Maine votes.
BBC calls Washington for Kerry.
Fox calls Alaska for Bush.
NBC calls Ohio for Bush.
BBC News reports that Bush Camp is timidly beginning to celebrate a victory while Kerry Camp remains silent
CNN calls Ohio 'too close to call'.
Odds
On Tradesports, the Bush futures contract dropped from about 53, where it has been for the past several days, to about 30, in about an hour, but then rallied to 65-66 by 15:30 UTC. On Betfair the odds on a Bush victory increased from 1.75 at the beginning of the day, to 5.0 at 13:00 UTC, and moved down to 1.33 at 15:20 UTC.
Oddschecker gives real time odds and accurate reflection of probabilities from various UK bookmakers. Good breakdown of battle ground states as well.
The Iowa Futures Market has shown Bush losing ground recently and Kerry picking up.
The price of light crude oil dropped yesterday by nearly $1.63 (3.2%), suggesting that traders speculate a win for Kerry and that this will lead to an easing of the geopolitical tension that caused prices to rise earlier in the year. [7]
Interpreting colors: In the US it has become tradition that the color red represents the Republican Party, and the color blue represents the Democratic Party.
*-Colorado has a Constitutional amendment on the ballot this year which would change the process by which its electoral votes are distributed. Results of the vote follow:
Colorado Amendment 36
Position
Votes
Vote %
Yes (proportional split)
355,712
34.10%
No (remains winner-take-all)
686,431
65.90%
**-Maine and Nebraska are unlike the other 48 states and the District of Columbia in that they allocate their electoral votes in the following manner: 1 for the winner of each Congressional district, 2 for the state winner. Neither state has ever split the vote.
File:Electoral map450nocache.jpgPresidential electoral votes by state. A candidate who accumulates at least 270 electoral votes out of a total 538 is elected President.
