Iran transition government

Iran transition government
Historic flag of Iran, used at the Munich Convergence Summit
Overview

An Iran transition government is a planned interim government for Iran, proposed by various Iranian opposition parties to lead a transition of Iran from a theocracy to democracy, the organization of free elections, the maintaining of Iran's territorial integrity as well as its immediate rebuilding.

In the 2025 Munich summit, a coalition of liberal and nationalist political parties selected Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, as the leader of transition government until the assembly of a new government after free democratic elections. Pahlavi has stated he personally prefers the establishment of a republic but that it is up to the Iranian people to decide. In a June 2025 conference, Pahlavi offered to take over Iranian leadership and help "navigate" Iran toward democracy.

Proposal

In February 2025, several Iranian opposition groups met in Munich, Bavaria, in what was called the "Munich Convergence Summit". At the summit, a coalition of liberal and nationalist political parties selected Reza Pahlavi, whose father Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was Shah of Iran until his overthrow in 1979, as the leader of transition government until the assembly of a new government after free democratic elections. Pahlavi has stated he personally prefers the establishment of a republic but that it is up to the Iranian people to decide.

On 17 June 2025, during the Iran-Israel War, Reza Pahlavi made a statement declaring that the Iranian regime had "reached its end and is in the process of collapsing" adding that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had "gone into hiding and had lost control of the situation". He went on to urge the Iranian people to "rise" and "reclaim" Iran. He confirmed that plans were in place for a 100-day transition period following the fall of the regime and outlined a vision for a national transitional government "led by and for the Iranian people". On 19 June, Reza Pahlavi told a bipartisan group of members of the United States House of Representatives that he had "chosen to step forward, not to seek power, but to fulfill a duty to help lead this transition". The following day, Pahlavi stated on social media that discussions had already started in relation to a post-Islamic Republic transition. On 22 June, following United States airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Pahlavi urged Supreme Leader Khamenei to step down. Pahlavi further outlined transition plans in a press conference on 23 June, prioritising Iran’s territorial integrity; individual liberties and equality; and the separation of religion and state. On 23 June, AP reported that Pahlavi offered to "take over the Iranian leadership and lead the country’s transition to democracy" in a news conference in Paris. Pahlavi said he does not seek power, instead saying he "wants to help our great nation navigate through this critical hour towards stability, freedom and justice.’'

In an article by Iranwire it was theorized that should the Islamic republic fall, it is possible the central government will collapse with it. Therefore the transition council in charge of Iran will require the aid of local councils, cities and civil society.

In June 2025, following the Iran Israel war, Reza Pahlavi called for the transition government to democracy be established in Iran. Pahlavi described it as the "This our Berlin wall moment".

Goals 

The goals of the transition government are as follows: 

• The establishment of democracy in Iran  
• The establishment of a national democratic government
• The rebuilding of Iran
• The territorial integrity of Iran
• The holding of free democratic elections in Iran 
• Environmental restoration of Iran
• Eliminating discrimination
• Protection human rights
• Protection of women rights
• The establishment of a market-based economy
• Civil rights and freedoms for Iranians
• The organization of democratic elections on the national level

Rebuilding 

Reza Pahlavi said that the Iranian opposition has a plan to establish a transitional government within 100 days and when the Islamic Republic comes to an end. Pahlavi called on Iranians in the Islamic Republic's security services not to resist the establishment of the new government and not to sacrifice themselves to the Islamic Republic which in Pahlavi's view is at its end. The Wall Street Journal said Pahlavi's message was also directed toward government officials in the current Iranian government.

The Phoenix project 

The Phoenix Project, also known as QOQNOOS is a think-tank of the Iranian opposition tasked with conceiving of strategies and methodologies of rebuilding Iran. It aims to empower Iranian civil society by tapping into the expertise of Iranian scientists and intellectuals. The project includes plans to invest in solar energy in the Lut Desert, enhance the quality of education, elevate Iranian universities into the top global rankings, and foster the growth of the tourism sector.

On the regional level, the Phoenix project also consist of plans to strengthen regional relations, improving healthcare services, expanding the national railway and transportation networks, upgrading Tehran's international airport, and developing Chabahar. The Phoenix Project is structured into various task forces, which consist of Iranian professionals and academics from diverse fields such as the environment, economy, energy, medicine, law, politics, security, defense, agriculture, industry, communications, media, and tourism.

Economy 

Banking 

The Central Bank of Iran in the transition government plans is to be independent of both military and government influence. According to the plan, the central bank will also need to remove bad assets and recapitalize such assets. During the transition, a deposit fund will assure depositors that their funds are secure. During the transition, the banking system will undergo reform. It is planned that its handling will be turned over to civilians and will be under central bank regulation. According to the project's guidelines, the new government will “sign and comply” with the Basel III guidelines as well as the FATF thus the transparency and oversight of Iran's finances will increase. All shadow banks will be removed until a clearly defined date. The transition will also incorporate Iran's finance system with the rest of the world.

Trade 

The transition government according to QOQNOOS plans to ensure there is a continuation of imports of vital goods. According to the document it will also work to relieve sanctions from Iran as well as liberalize trade, specifically ending state monopolies as well as remove trade regulations. 

The government according to the document will ensure liquidity of currency ensure higher performance of public sector spending which under the Islamic Republic is characterized by corruption and inefficiency according to QOQNOOS. The government will also seek IMF assistance.

 Health 

The government plans to build national and regional stock piles of medicine in case of emergencies. The transition government will also ask for international volunteer assistance as well as the establishment of task forces that will monitor performance of government resource allocation. 

International law and foreign relations 

QOQNOOS states that the transition government will commit Iran to international law. It will also along with international allies ensure Iranian assets are not seized by foreign powers. The transition government will also establish a task force to recover the frozen foreign assets of Iran.

The government will gradually replace embassy staff and provide assistance to the Iranian diaspora as well as seek cooperation and aid with foreign countries to secure its embassies abroad.

 Human rights 

The transition think tank describes the Islamic Republic as having a poor human rights record and said the potential transition government will be tasked with repairing Iran's human rights image by participating in global human rights and environment related conferences.

Iran prosperity project

The Iran prosperity project consists of a group of intellectual which creates policy proposals for a potential transition government in various fields, including: energy, foreign relations, the economy and security. The group has drafted white papers and held conferences in the matter. Most of the experts are from the Iranian diaspora and include Ghasseminejad of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies as well as Aidin Panahi of Worcester Polytechnic Institute.

Composition 

Kayhan London reported that in February 2025 the Iranian opposition met in Munich to compose the transition government. From the meeting it was agreed the transition government will be a “secular democratic” government. It was also agreed that it will ensure Iran's territorial integrity as well as ensure human rights. It was also decided in Munich that the decision whether Reza Pahlavi would be made a monarch was dismissed as premature by Pahlavi. Pahlavi told the BBC when asked about his future role that his goal is that Iranians can freely determine their fate and that it was up to the Iranian people to decide what kind of option they prefer. In 2021, Pahlavi, a self-described democrat, told the BBC he prefers a republican system over a constitutional monarchy. Pahlavi was chosen as the leader of the transition government until free democratic elections are held in Iran and a democratic parliament elects a new government. This was also done to bring about the "greatest possible unity". He also said: "The goal is not to achieve political power, but to try to establish a system in which power is never monopolized by one individual or one group,” in 2021 regarding his envisioning of the future government. Pahlavi and the government distanced themselves from extreme monarchists and said their objective was democracy. Among the parties who supported the 2025 Munich agreement are representatives from several Iranian opposition parties participated in the meeting, including Iran-Novin Party, Rastakhair Iranistayan, Constitutional Party of Iran/Liberal Democrat, Republican Society Supporting Prince Reza Pahlavi, Pan-Iranist Party, Patriotic Kurdish Iranians, People's Organization, Haft Aban, Constitutional Organization, and Hope Institute. These groups, along with other nationalist organizations, presented their suggestions to complement the initial 10-point principles of the "Iranian Prosperity Project," which had been introduced at a conference held by the "National Union for Democracy in Iran" (Novadi) in early October 2024 in Washington, D.C.   

Politico reported that Pahlavi is establishing a platform "dissidents and internal opponents of the regime to coordinate their efforts to overthrow the dictatorship" and transform Iran into a democracy.

Analysis 

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) said that unlike the Arab countries of the Middle East whose borders were organized by European powers, Iran sits on its natural borders and is a long running historical state, unlike its Arab neighbors. According to CNAS Senior Fellow Robert Kaplan, regime change in Iran from an Islamic Republic to a liberal one will have major influence on Central Asia as well as the Middle East. Kaplan argued in a Bloomberg op-ed that Iran under a new liberal government could become a potential ally of the United States. Pahlavi said Iran would be an ally of the West and of Europe. 

Henry Kissinger, according to Robert Kaplan said that due to Iran's rich civilization history and powerful state institutions, had the Pahlavi Dynasty remained in power Iran would have transitioned into a constitutional monarchy. Iran is also said to be an “idea” similar to China and Greece that is more powerful than borders and consists of a civilizational cultural sphere. Kaplan in the Bloomberg piece said regariding cyncism of a democratic transition “may be geopolitically coherent enough to avoid the chaos that accompanied the yearnings for democracy in such an artificially drawn state as Iraq”.

Deutsche Welt reported that there is rising "speculation" regarding Iran's type of government changing following the Iran Israel war. Politico also pointed to Donald Trump's "Make Iran Great Again" and debate over regime change in Iran as increasing the debate over Pahlavi's proposition. According to Politco, it is possible that Iran's transition will be smoother than Iraq's since unlike Iraq, Iran has "a long and proud history".

 

External links

• Reza Pahlavi