Next Dutch general election

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Next Dutch general election
Netherlands
← 2023 By 15 March 2028

All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
PVV Geert Wilders 37
GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans 25
VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz 24
NSC Pieter Omtzigt 20
D66 Rob Jetten 9
BBB Caroline van der Plas 7
CDA Henri Bontenbal 5
SP Jimmy Dijk 5
Denk Stephan van Baarle 3
PvdD Esther Ouwehand 3
FvD Thierry Baudet 3
SGP Chris Stoffer 3
CU Mirjam Bikker 3
Volt Laurens Dassen 2
JA21 Joost Eerdmans 1

The next Dutch general election to elect the members of the House of Representatives is scheduled for March 2028, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.

Electoral system[edit]

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[2][3]

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).

Seats

Seats[edit]

There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 Lead Ref
PvdA GL
Ipsos 22–25 Mar 2024 1,016 49 24 20 11 10 6 6 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 25 [4]
Peil.nl 22 Mar 2024 49 25 15 9 10 7 9 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 24 [5]
Peil.nl 8 Mar 2024 49 25 15 10 10 7 9 7 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 24 [5]
Ipsos 23–26 Feb 2024 1,022 49 25 19 11 11 8 6 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 24 [6]
I&O Research 9–12 Feb 2024 2,752 49 25 17 9 9 7 7 5 2 5 3 4 3 4 1 24 [7]
Peil.nl 9 Feb 2024 6,000 52 25 13 11 10 8 8 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 27 [8]
Peil.nl 2–3 Feb 2024 4,500+ 50 25 13 15 10 7 7 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 25 [9]
Ipsos 26–29 Jan 2024 1,025 45 25 19 18 11 6 5 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 20 [10]
Peil.nl 19–20 Jan 2024 5,500+ 49 23 12 17 10 9 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 26 [11]
Peil.nl 22 Dec 2023 48 22 13 18 11 9 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 26 [12]
Ipsos 15–18 Dec 2023 1,052 47 22 18 19 9 8 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 2 0 25 [13]
13 Dec 2023 Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader[14]
I&O Research 8–11 Dec 2023 2,952 43 23 16 20 10 8 5 5 2 5 3 3 3 4 0 20 [15]
Peil.nl 1–2 Dec 2023 42 22 16 19 11 10 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 20 [16]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023 37 25 24 20 9 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 12

Vote share[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 Others Lead Ref
PvdA GL
Ipsos 22–25 Mar 2024 1,016 31.1% 15.6% 12.6% 7.0% 6.6% 4.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 15.5% [17]
Ipsos 23–26 Feb 2024 1,022 31.1% 15.9% 12.4% 7.0% 7.0% 5.4% 4.3% 2.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 15.2% [18]
I&O Research 9–12 Feb 2024 2,752 31.0% 16.5% 11.1% 6.3% 6.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.2% 1.8% 3.2% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 14.5% [7]
Ipsos 26–29 Jan 2024 1,025 28.4% 16.0% 12.2% 11.9% 6.9% 4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 12.4% [19]
Ipsos 15–18 Dec 2023 1,052 29.8% 13.8% 11.5% 12.4% 6.1% 5.1% 2.6% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 16.0% [20]
I&O Research 8–11 Dec 2023 2,952 27.4% 14.6% 10.4% 12.5% 6.6% 5.5% 3.4% 3.6% 1.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.7% 12.8% [7]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023 23.49% 15.75% 15.14% 12.88% 6.29% 4.65% 3.31% 3.15% 2.37% 2.25% 2.23% 2.08% 2.04% 1.71% 0.68% 1.88% 7.74%

Notes[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Zetelverdeling over partijen". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  2. ^ Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  3. ^ "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  4. ^ "Kiezers formerende partijen oneens over financiën, NSC weet verloren stemmers niet terug te halen in nieuwe zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 26 March 2024.
  5. ^ a b Hond, Maurice de (23 March 2024). "Twee derde hoopt dat formatie succesvol verloopt".
  6. ^ "NSC met 11 zetels op dieptepunt in zetelpeiling, kiezers willen dat Omtzigt alsnog meewerkt aan rechtse coalitie". EenVandaag. 27 February 2024.
  7. ^ a b c Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 February 2024). "Politieke peiling februari 2024" (PDF). Ipsos I&O.
  8. ^ Hond, Maurice de (11 February 2024). "NSC en Omtzigt zakken fors terug na breuk".
  9. ^ Hond, Maurice de (3 February 2024). "PVV 50 zetels, NSC zakt langzaam weg".
  10. ^ "Helft vindt dat formatie te traag gaat, PVV blijft ondertussen met afstand grootste partij in zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 30 January 2024.
  11. ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Historische peiling: PVV 4 keer zo groot als de VVD".
  12. ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Recordscores PVV en VVD – Peilingen".
  13. ^ "PVV stijgt verder door naar historische 47 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, VVD hard onderuit". EenVandaag. 19 December 2023.
  14. ^ "Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader". NU.nl (in Dutch). 13 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  15. ^ "I&O-zetelpeiling: groei PVV zet door". I&O Research. 14 December 2023.
  16. ^ "Enorme electorale schommelingen na de verkiezingen". 2 December 2023.
  17. ^ "Politieke barometer week 13". Ipsos. 27 March 2024.
  18. ^ "Politieke barometer week 9". Ipsos. 28 February 2024.
  19. ^ "Politieke barometer week 5". Ipsos. 31 January 2024.
  20. ^ "Politieke barometer week 51". Ipsos. 21 December 2023.