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2008 United States House of Representatives elections

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Template:Future election Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, 2008 state gubernatorial elections will occur on the same date, as well as many other state and local elections.

Predictions

The Hotline's John Mercurio has said that the Democrats may well lose their House majority in the 2008 elections.

ElectionProjection.com's Scott Elliot, however, says that the Democratic majority will be tough to beat. At most, he says, the GOP can take back fourteen House seats - one short of a majority.[1]

Democrats fear that some of their incoming freshman, many of whom were elected in predominantly Republican districts, may lose their seats in 2008.

Major parties

The composition of the House going into the 2008 election will depend on the results of the 2006 elections and any subsequent special elections.

Potential races

The Democrats will control the 110th Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

  • Age: The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Night 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open.
  • Cabinet appointments: Some districts could become open should the incumbent be appointed to a position within the Bush Administration.
  • District demographics: The incumbent is a Republican representing an area that leans or strongly favors the Democratic Party. The same can be said about Democrats whose districts lean or strongly favor the Republican Party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote.
  • Governor controversies: Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of Republican Governor Mitch Daniels.
  • Health Issues: The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forego plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress.
  • Higher office aspirations: The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat (e.g., Mark Udall for Wayne Allard's Senate seat), the Governor's Mansion, or for mayor of a major city
  • Redistricting: Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican.
  • Scandals: The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal (e.g., Jack Abramoff scandals) or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party (e.g., Nick Lampson in the former seat of Tom DeLay).

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) could be vulnerable. He received only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent (civil rights attorney Ellen Simon) in 2006. George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004.

California

  • California's 47th congressional district— Democrat Loretta Sanchez won 62% of the vote in a district that barely went to George W. Bush with around 50% of the vote, which could result in a potential opening for Republicans, who recruited a weak candidate in 2006. However, her district is located in one of the more Democratic areas of Orange County, which includes Anaheim.

Colorado

  • Colorado's 4th congressional district— Conservative Republican Marilyn Musgrave, best known for her belief that gay marriage is the most important issue facing Americans, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Democrat Angie Paccione and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who managed to bevy up 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area, could make her vulnerable in 2008, especially if her 2002 and 2004 challenger, Stan Matsunaka, decides to run against her for a third time.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— This seat could become open in 2008 if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard retires, as Tom Tancredo has considered running for this seat should Allard retire. If Tancredo decides to run for re-election for his House seat instead, he could face a challenge given his controversial views on immigration reform. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats, having given Tancredo the highest vote total and winning percentage of any Republican for a Colorado congressional seat. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre that nearly cost Tancredo re-election in 2000 (due to his gun rights views).

Connecticut

Delaware

  • Delaware's at-large congressional district— Republican Michael Castle may retire or run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Joe Biden should Biden run for President and not run for his Senate seat at the same time. Castle was re-elected in 2006, garnering 57.2% of the vote over Democrat Dennis Spivack. Castle will be 69 in 2008. The state of Delaware - coterminous with this House district - went to John Kerry in 2004.

Florida

  • Florida's 2nd congressional district— If incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd retires or runs for another office, this district in the Florida Panhandle could become competitive, as it is trending in favor of the Republican Party. Boyd won unopposed in 2006 and will be 63 in 2008.
  • Florida's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Bill Young (R) may retire. There had been speculation in 2006 that he would retire unless either his wife ran or no one else filed for the Republican nomination. Young ran again based on the latter scenario. Young will be 78 in 2008 and if he does retire, his seat will likely be competitive as George W. Bush only won this district, centered around St. Petersburg and Pinellas County by three percentage points.
  • Florida's 13th congressional district— Republican auto dealer Vern Buchanan appears to have won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings is challenging the election in court. The matter may be taken up by the House next year if unresolved before that time. Should Buchanan be seated, he will likely face a competitive race in 2008.

Georgia

Hawaii

  • Hawaii's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Neil Abercrombie (D) may retire. Located in a heavily Democratic state, this district is dominated by Honolulu. Abercrombie will be 70 in 2008 and if he retires, this race could become competitive; John Kerry won only 52% of the vote here in 2004.

Illinois

  • Illinois's 8th congressional district— Democrat Melissa Bean is a frequent target of Republicans, who unsuccessful tried to unseat her in 2006, when Bean won 51% of the vote after defeating veteran incumbent Phil Crane with 52% in 2004. Republicans will look to go at it again in this district, which George W. Bush won with 55% to 44% for John Kerry.

Indiana

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Democrat Joe Donnelly won by 54% to 46% in this Republican-leaning district that went to George W. Bush in 2004 as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels will make it difficult for Republicans to take back this seat in 2008, the GOP will look to challenge for this seat.

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— If Democrat Bill Jefferson holds on to his New Orleans-based congressional seat, his seat could either face a primary challenge in 2008 or even become open should Jefferson, who has come under fire from the FBI for taking thousands of dollars in bribes (including money police found in Jefferson's freezer), either resign or be indicted/convicted and thus expelled from Congress. If his runoff challenger, Democrat Karen Carter, defeats Jefferson, this race will not be considered competitive; New Orleans is heavily Democratic, having only given George W. Bush 24% of the vote.

Maine

Maryland

  • Maryland's 4th congressional district— Coming off a close primary against political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Democratic Congressman Al Wynn will most likely face a tough primary race once again, although there will be little competition in the general election (the district is solidly Democratic). Many view Wynn as not having a liberal enough voting record for the district. Wynn voted for the Iraq war, the 2005 Bankruptcy bill, and the repeal of the estate tax in the 109th Congress.
  • Maryland's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (R) may retire. Bartlett's district is one of the more Republican seats in heavily Democratic Maryland, and includes several western cities such as Frederick and Hagerstown. Bartlett will be 82 in 2008, and received 58% in 2006, nine points smaller than his 2004 margin of 67%, against a lesser-known opponent.

Massachusetts

  • Massachusetts's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey pledged to run for the Senate seat held by John Kerry in 2004 if Kerry won the presidency over President George W. Bush. Kerry would go on to lose the election. With Kerry looking at a potential run for President in 2008, when his own Senate seat is up for re-election, there is a possibility that Kerry might not run for the Senate seat, meaning Markey could run for Kerry's seat. Markey's district in the northern and western suburbs of Boston is heavily Democratic and includes large percentages of Irish (24.1%) and Italian Americans (22.1%), both ethnic groups that have been historically Democratic.

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Nevada

New Hampshire

  • New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican Charlie Bass in 2006, taking 53% of the vote in a district John Kerry narrowly won. Given the fact that New Hampshire traditionally leads Republican (though it has been leaning Democratic recently), the GOP might look to challenge Hodes.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Don Payne, who is often described as the most consistently liberal member of New Jersey's congressional delegation, may retire. Payne's district is a heavily Democratic one centered around Newark. Payne will be 74 in 2008.

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Currently, Republican Robin Hayes is barely hanging on to a small lead in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell, and regardless of the outcome, this seat will be competitive in 2008 (Hayes because of his vote for CAFTA that he first opposed, but voted for because of pressure from House leadership; Kissell because of the Republican-leaning nature of this district, centered around outer portions of the Charlotte area and Fayetteville.

North Dakota

Ohio

  • Ohio's 15th congressional district— Republican Deborah Pryce is currently leading against Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by over 1,054 votes. Kilroy has not conceded the race yet, but regardless of the outcome, this race is expected to be close in 2008; George W. Bush barely won here in 2004.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district— Being viewed by Republicans as one of the “Scandal Five” [2], Democrat Zack Space is expected to be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in eastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush by a 15-point margin in 2004. Also, Republicans were forced to select a new candidate, Joy Padgett, after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.

Oregon

  • Oregon's 5th congressional district— Democrat Darlene Hooley will likely face a difficult race in 2008 if Republicans recruit a strong candidate. George W. Bush barely won this Willamette Valley district in 2004, when Hooley received only 53% of the vote.

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district— Democrat Jason Altmire defeated Republican incumbent Melissa Hart in a shocking 52% to 48% upset as Hart won 63% of the vote in 2004, when George W. Bush carried this suburban Pittsburgh district by nine points. Pennsylvania was perhaps the most disastrous area for incumbent GOP House members, who lost four seats in this state.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Expect Chris Carney (D) to face a difficult re-election bid as this is a heavily Republican district that Carney won only after allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount, spilled into the mainstream. Carney is being marketed as one of the “Scandal Five” that have the potential of being targeted by Republicans in 2008 [3].
  • Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Incumbent John Murtha (D) might retire, but such a move is highly unlikely given that he is running for Majority Leader now that Democrats gained control of the House in 2006. His opposition to the Iraq War will likely make him a Republican target if he does not retire. Murtha will be 76 in 2008.

South Carolina

Texas

  • Texas's 22nd congressional district— This House seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance policies. Nick Lampson won the general election, mainly facing only write-in opposition from the Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs won the special election, and will be a member of congress for almost two months until Lampson is sworn in. Lampson is expected to face a difficult re-election in 2008. Referred to as one of the “Scandal Five”, a group of Democrats that Republicans will look to target in 2008 [4], Lampson represents a heavily Republican constituency that gave George W. Bush 64% of the vote. The district takes in several heavily Republican suburbs of Houston, including Sugar Land, portions of Pasadena and Pearland, and Houston's Clear Lake master-planned development. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Sekula-Gibbs may run against Lampson in the 2008 election. However, Sekula-Gibbs has caused a stir with voters after leveling charges of unprofessionalism against former DeLay aides, who later fired back claiming Sekula-Gibbs herself was unprofessional. Sugar Land mayor David Wallace, who was snubbed by GOP precinct chairs in favor of Sekula-Gibbs to the disgust of Republican officials in Fort Bend County, is also a potential candidate, as well as Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt.
  • Texas's 23rd congressional district— There will be a runoff between Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla and former Democratic congressman Ciro Rodriguez that will be held on a date TBA. A Bonilla victory will make this seat a target of the Democrats in 2008, while a Rodriguez victory would do the same thing for the Republicans.
  • Texas's 32nd congressional district— Republican Pete Sessions is known to have ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Thus, he could face a challenge from Democrats in 2008. While Sessions improved on his nasty, hugely expensive 2004 campaign (against fellow incumbent and Democrat Martin Frost), it was only by two percentage points (from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2006). By contrast, in 2004 George W. Bush won 59% of the vote in this district, which includes several affluent areas of Dallas including Highland Park, and the suburbs of Irving and Richardson.

Utah

Virginia

  • Virginia's 10th congressional district— George W. Bush won 55% of this district in 2004, which is held by Republican Frank Wolf and faced a challenge from Democrat Judy Feder in 2006. Democrats have been making gains in Northern Virginia recently, which will make re-election tough for Wolf in 2008. Wolf’s district covers Loudoun and part of Fairfax counties.

Washington

West Virginia

  • West Virginia's 1st congressional district— Controversy-plagued incumbent Alan Mollohan (D) represents a Republican-leaning district and received four fewer percentage points in 2006 than in 2004, which is considered unusual among Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections as Democrats chiefly made gains against Republican opponents or ran unopposed that year. The district covers the northern parts of West Virginia.

Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Democrat Steve Kagen won his first term in this Republican-leaning (George W. Bush won it in 2004) district by a 51-49% margin. Kagen will likely face a challenge from Republicans who previously held this seat.

Wyoming

  • Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Republican Barbara Cubin is currently ahead of Democrat Gary Trauner by a margin of less than 1,000 votes. Cubin faced a difficult re-election in a district that gave George W. Bush an overwhelming margin of 69% in 2004. Cubin sparked controversy over a number of incidents that ranged from receiving money from ARMPAC, to distributing penis-shaped cookies to male colleagues while in the Wyoming legislature, to even an incident after a televised debate in which she remarked that if the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis and must use a wheelchair, “weren’t sitting in that chair”, she would have slapped Rankin in the face. Regardless of the victor, this race could be competitive because of Cubin's controversy and Trauner's affiliation as a Democrat in a strongly Republican state.

See also

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