2006 Italian general election

Template:Future election

The next Italian general election is scheduled to be in 2006, unless the majority parliamentary group asks the President of the Republic for an early election. The Italian law system elects the two Chambers of the National Parliament at the same time for a maximum of five years. Since the last general election was on May 13, 2001, the next one should occur not later than May 2006.

On October 18, 2005, Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi announced the next general election to be held on April 9, 2006.

The political battle

The House of Freedoms

File:SilvioB.jpg

Silvio Berlusconi, incumbent PM and leader of the House of Freedoms

The House of Freedoms, the government coalition currently led by the Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi, will probably be made up by the same parties as in the previous general election, namely:

Forza Italia, personality-driven party led by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi himself;
National Alliance (Alleanza Nazionale, AN), conservative party led by Ministry for Foreign Affairs and former vice-premier Gianfranco Fini;
Democrats' Centre Union (Unione Democratici di Centro, UDC), moderate Catholic centrist party. The party was led by Marco Follini until his resignation on October 15; the new leader is Lorenzo Cesa;
Northern League (Lega Nord), autonomous right-wing Northern Italian party, led by former Reform Ministry Umberto Bossi.

The Socialist Party New PSI, a small party composed of former socialists of the late Italian Socialist Party and led by former 1980s and 1990s minister Gianni De Michelis, which is part of the Berlusconi III government with a minister without portfolio, suffered a split on its last national congress (October 21-23, 2005), with a left-wing side, led by Bobo Craxi, son of the late Bettino, who decided to immediately leave the House of Freedoms and unilaterally elected Craxi himself as new party leader.

About the candidate who will lead the coalition to the general election, Berlusconi experienced an actual lose of support from UDC, who asked for a reform of the electoral law in a proportional way (which would likely favour it) and a sort of primary election for deciding formally the next candidate. But recent developments, who are going to bring straightforward to a reform in a proportional sense of the current electoral law (but much different than the UDC proposal) and resignation of Marco Follini, critic of several reforms imposed by Berlusconi to the whole coalition, from the UDC secretarship, have actually dissolved for now the possibility of a change of leadership inside the House of Freedoms. On October 27, Lorenzo Cesa was appointed as new UDC secretary, becoming the successor of Follini himself.

The Union

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Romano Prodi, leading exponent of The Union

The former Olive Tree coalition, expression of the Italian centre-left, now renamed as The Union (L'Unione), will be led for the election by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Commission Romano Prodi, who has already beaten Berlusconi in the 1996 elections. Prodi's candidacy was confirmed by a national primary election, held on October 16, 2005 (for more information about the primary election, see the related paragraph below).

Moreover, the former coalition was enlarged in order to cover the whole ensemble of Italian left-wing factions. The parties in the alliance are:

Popular-UDEUR (Popolari-UDEUR), small catholic centrist party, the rightist wing of the coalition, led by Clemente Mastella;
Daisy-Democracy is Freedom (La Margherita), centrist party (catholic, social-liberals, ecologist) led by former Rome's Mayor and former 2001 Olive Tree candidate Francesco Rutelli;
European Republican Movement (Repubblicani Europei, MRE), social-liberal party led by Luciana Sbarbati;
Democrats of the Left (Democratici di Sinistra, DS), social-democratic party, led by Piero Fassino;
Italian Democratic Socialists (SDI), small social-democratic party led by Enrico Boselli;
Federation of the Greens (Verdi), green and ecologist party led by Alfonso Pecoraro Scanio;
Italy of Values-List Di Pietro (Italia dei Valori), small anti-corruption movement led by popular former Mani Pulite magistrate Antonio Di Pietro;
Party of Italian Communists (Comunisti Italiani), euro-communist party, born in 1998 as split of the Communist Refoundation Party, led by Oliviero Diliberto;
Communist Refoundation Party (Rifondazione Comunista, PRC), euro-communists led by Fausto Bertinotti.

In addition to that, four of the most moderate parties of the coalition, Democrats of the Left, Daisy-Democracy is Freedom, European Republican Movement and Italian Democratic Socialists, have joined a parties' confederation, named All United in the Olive Tree.

In September 25, 2005, the Italian Radicals, a historical libertarian, lay, and socially leftist party of Italy, have officially declared an alliance with the Italian Democratic Socialist in the form of confederation, with explicit references on politics of Tony Blair, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Loris Fortuna, a Italian politician in the 1970s who became famous for his lay proposals, and considered as the father of the law on divorce. The Socialist Party New PSI, called to decide on its national congress, actually splitted about the issue, with a left wing led by Bobo Craxi deciding to immediately leave the House of Freedoms and join the confederation, in order to make a reunification of the old Italian Socialist Party, dissolved in the early 1990s after the popular judicial inquiry Mani pulite. The new political subject is likely to participate to the general election with a only single symbol.

Political issues

The election date

On July 2005, President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi asked current PM Silvio Berlusconi about the opportunity for an early election for the first half of April 2006, in order to prevent a big political deadlock (the mandate of President Ciampi himself will be over in May 2006 and a newly-elected government will not likely be in office within three weeks). Berlusconi has however refused the deal, claiming he will stay in office until the due date of his term. [1] [2]

But, on October 18, Berlusconi announced that the election will be held on April 9, 2006, eventually following the suggestions from President Ciampi. Berlusconi also announced that the next administrative elections (which include the mayoral elections of Rome, Milan and Naples) will be held in May, the day after Romano Prodi had asked to vote for all elections the same day, in April. [3] [4]

The par condicio law

One of the main topics that might be relevant for this general election is the par condicio law. Its name, in Latin, means equal treatment; it is a special law which guarantees all the main majority and opposition political forces to have equal media treatment, in terms of times and spaces, and, furthermore, denies political commercials for TV and radio outside some dedicated transmissions.

Berlusconi has declared several times that he wants the par condicio law to be either abrogated or at least changed in a much lighter way. [5] [6] [7] Critics and opponents say that Berlusconi's willingness to have the law abolished are dictated by his almost complete control of 6 channels (he is owner of Mediaset, which broadcasts three national private channels, and controls indirectly, as Head of Government, the three RAI public broadcasting channels).

Recently, Berlusconi is attempting to make an acceleration to his willings; but UDC, who is part of the Berlusconi government, declared several times its opposition to either abolish or change the par condicio law, especially in latter times. The new secretary Lorenzo Cesa, after his election as party leader, declared his refusal of any change of the law. [8]

Tax breaks

Before winning the 2001 election and becoming Prime Minister of Italy, Berlusconi signed in a TV show a Contract with Italians, where he promised, if elected, to fulfill at least four of the five points included in it. One of the main points regarded a tax break for income levels, whereas the Olive Tree policy was essentially to maintain a progressive taxation system.

The generalised tax break was somehow performed in 2005, and included in the last Financial Measure. The opposition blamed Berlusconi for doing the tax break in one of the worst economic periods for the country, with no coverage for the resulting debt, and accused Berlusconi's allies of accepting the tax break in return for better power positions; during the negotiations for the Financial Measure, the Alleanza Nazionale leader, and, at that date, vice-premier, Gianfranco Fini, was moved to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and UDC leader Marco Follini, who had no ministerial role before that date, was chosen to replace Fini.

The foreign reputation

A good friend of George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, Berlusconi supported the American invasion of Iraq, and, during the Italian EU presidency, suggested to MEP Martin Schulz, during a talk, a role of kapo for a hypothetical movie. [9] [10] This diplomatic incident, which cooled down the Italy-Germany foreign relations for a long period, followed another of Berlusconi's gaffes in 2001, when he declared the Western civilization to be "superior to Islam". [11]

Several times, before and after his election as prime minister, the weekly worldwide magazine The Economist accused Berlusconi to be essentially "unfit to lead Italy". [12] [13] [14].

Attempts for a Constitutional Reform

During the last few months of 2004, the House of Freedoms coalition proposed a large and consistent reform of the current Italian Constitution, which was formulated in 1948 [15]. It proposes several changes to the current political system, from a parliamentary system to a more presidential-centered one, with several references to devolution, the main programme point of the autonomist government party Northern League.

The Italian law prescribes that the Parliament accept twice, in each of the chambers and with at least three months' interval, every modification to the constitution, and, if it passes with less than 2/3 of the votes, a national referendum on the modification can be held. Since the opposition coalition is clearly against the new constitution reform, defining it as dangerous, separatist, and somehow antidemocratic [16], a prospective referendum might be called for 2006 or 2007, in any case after the general election. The first procedural step, that is, the approval by the Chamber of Deputies, was done successfully for October 2004, but with less than 2/3 of the lower-house votes. [17] The second favourable polling, in Senate, was done on March 2005, whereas the third one occurred on October 20. During the third polling, former UDC leader Marco Follini announced he would abstain from the final vote, not support anymore the constitutional reform, followed by his party fellow Bruno Tabacci. [18] [19]

The House of Freedoms' proposal of constitutional reform has been done in a unilateral way, with no agreement with the opposition, whereas the current Italian Constitution was written after World War II by all the national political forces (except the fascists), ranging from liberals, to christian democrats, to socialists, to communists and others.

The 2005 regional elections

For more information, see Italian Regional Elections, April 3 and 4, 2005 and Regional Election of Basilicata, April 17 and 18, 2005

On April 3 and 4, 2005, regional elections were held in 13 Italian regions (the election in Basilicata was put off for two weeks because of irregularities). The final result actually reversed the political scenario of Italy, with left-wing opposition coalition The Union winning in 11 regions, while right-wing government coalition House of Freedoms maintaining only two of the eight regions they were ruling before the election. These results have brought some right-wing members, including vice-premier Marco Follini, to ask for early national election.

The left-wing primary election

For more information, see The Union (political coalition)#Primary Elections

On October 16, 2005, a primary election was held to officially declare the one and only candidate for the left-wing coalition The Union. [20] Over four millions voters have participated to the election.

Major candidate Romano Prodi, who has been one of the main supporters of the primary election, gained a clear win, obtaining about 75% of the votes and defeating euro-communist leader Fausto Bertinotti, green Alfonso Pecoraro Scanio, popular former magistrate Antonio Di Pietro, catholic centrist politician Clemente Mastella, independent candidate Ivan Scalfarotto and far left-wing candidate Simona Panzino. The election was also opened to non-Italian official residents, even if they will not be eligible to vote for the general election.

Economical issues

On September 22, 2005, the Italian minister for the economy, Domenico Siniscalco, resigned from his office in the third Berlusconi government. Siniscalco, a "technical" minister with no party affiliation, was nominated in July 2004, in order to replace Giulio Tremonti. Siniscalco is the fourth minister to resign since 2001. His resignation is considered to be strongly linked to the Fazio scandal, and the rejection, from several majority parties, such as Northern League and UDC, of his proposal for the 2006 Financial Bill. [21]

After Siniscalco's resignation, several from the House of Freedoms asked for an immediate replacement, with a political minister not a caretaker, like in 2002, when Berlusconi himself stood in as minister of foreign affairs for 11 months (January to November) after the resignation of Riccardo Ruggiero (according to Italian law, when a ministry is vacant, the Prime Minister assumes the position until a new replacement is nominated). The Union asked instead for an early general election, to be held possibly in February 2006.

The government crisis was eventually resolved the same night, with the reappointment as new minister of Giulio Tremonti, one of the vice-prime ministers, who had already held the position from 2001 to 2004, when he resigned and was replaced by Siniscalco.

The electoral system

Italy currently has a mixed electoral system, with 75% of the seats assigned through a uninominal voting system, and 25% through a proportional system.

The majority of the seats are assigned by several local elections, which cover each small zone of the country, allowing a representative for every area.

The Italian Chamber of Deputies has 630 seats, the Senate 315 (exactly half).

Proposals for a new voting system

A white paper for a proportional-only electoral system was presented to the Chamber of Deputies on September 13, 2005, only seven or eight months before the 2006 general election. This reform, strongly backed by the Catholic centre-right Democrats' Centre Union, proposed a 4% threshold before a party gained any seats, and a majority bonus of (at least) 340 seats for the winning coalition, the total votes for each coalition being the sum of the votes of those coalition parties which had won at least 4% of the national votes. Should the new proposal be approved by parliament, it will overturn the 1993 referendum which brought about the abolition of the old proportional voting system. [22] [23]

An electoral survey published on September 15, 2005 by the national newspaper La Repubblica [24] claimed that, should the new proposal of electoral reform become law, the House of Freedoms would win the next elections 340-290, even if they won only 45% of votes and the opposition coalition The Union won 50%, because the Union also includes several small parties with less than 4% of national votes. With the current electoral system, instead, the left-wing Union would win the election 363-263.

The Democrats' Centre Union, commenting on the proposal, asked for the abolition of the 4% cut-off clause, whereas the National Alliance did not show any favour to this attempt of reform, with its leader Gianfranco Fini claiming to want first to vote for the constitutional reform, and then for the new voting system, on condition that the 4% cut-off were not repealed. [25]

This proposal of law was strongly questioned by the opposition coalition, who defined it an "attempted coup". Opposition leader Romano Prodisaid it was "totally unacceptable" [26]. Several newspapers politically oriented to the left nicknamed the electoral system proposal by the House of Freedoms as "Truffarellum", after "truffa" (Italian for "fraud") and the "Mattarellum", the commonest name for current Italian electoral law.

Notably, some smaller opposition parties, such as Communist Refoundation Party and Popular-UDEUR, support a proportional electoral law; nevertheless, they declared they were against an electoral reform by this parliament, because the current law would be changed too close to the 2006 general election.

It should be remembered that Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi had previously been a strong supporter of a uninominal electoral law; in 1995, talking about his coalition, he even defined the uninominal principle as "our religion". [27]

A changed version of the first proposal, this time with a 2% threshold for entering Parliament and without vote of preference for candidates, but still without the support of the opposition, was presented to the Chamber of Deputies. The voting count started on October 11; the lower house of Italian parliament then approved the electoral reform on October 14. [28] The next day, UDC secretary Marco Follini, dissatisfied with how the electoral reform had been changed, and in open contrast with Berlusconi, resigned his party leadership. [29].