Talk:P(doom)

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I came up with the "p(doom)" term - in 2009

As for "originating as an inside joke among AI researchers" - I came up with the term - as far as anyone can tell. I posted about it many times on LessWrong - which still has the posts archived. I was not an AI researcher. For the story, see the Roose, Kevin (2023-12-06) NYT article already linked as a reference in the article. TylerTim (talk) 02:54, 11 January 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Here's a thread where I tell my story on Twitter/X: https://x.com/tim_tyler/status/1665571547111649286 TylerTim (talk) 02:56, 11 January 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Here's a link to a relevant page on my <cough> machine intelligence web site: https://matchingpennies.com/pdoom/ TylerTim (talk) 03:00, 11 January 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Nate Silver's p(doom) is 5-10%

Nate Silver estimates p(doom) as 5-10% here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-to-come-to-grips-with-ai

Perhaps a regular contributor can add this to the list of prominent figure's p(doom) estimates. 71.161.118.179 (talk) 02:30, 28 January 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Geoffrey Hinton

In a recent interview with CBS he stated that he agrees with Elon Musk in that there's a 10-20% chance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvAeKSBTD8c?t=138 (at 2:18 if the timestanp doesn't work) — Preceding unsigned comment added by 80.5.201.152 (talk) 11:06, 25 May 2025 (UTC)[reply]

No, Hinton's personal probability was somewhere above 50%.

He estimated that the average probability of AI researchers was somewhere in the realm of 10%. FavourNSpice (talk) 23:32, 5 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]