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Frexit

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

France's location in the European Union
Election campaign poster by the Action Française party in favour of Frexit

Frexit (a portmanteau of "French" or "France" and "exit") is the hypothetical French withdrawal from the European Union (EU). The term is similar to Brexit, which denotes the UK leaving the EU. The term was mostly used during the campaign leading to the French presidential election of 2017.

A poll by the Pew Research Center in June 2016, before the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, found France to have a 61% unfavourable view of the EU, second only to Greece's 71%, with the United Kingdom on 48%.[1] However, when asked about an actual departure from the EU, 45% of French wanted to stay in the bloc while 33% expressed a desire to leave.[2] The figure in favour of remaining increased to 60% in a subsequent poll in 2019.

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum held on 23 June 2016, which resulted in 51.9% of votes being cast in favour of exiting the EU, occurred during the electoral campaign leading to the French presidential election of 2017. Following the referendum result, Front National Leader Marine Le Pen promised a French referendum on EU membership if she were to win the presidential election.[3] Former President François Hollande met with politicians including Le Pen in the aftermath of the vote and rejected her proposal for a referendum.[4] Fellow 2017 candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan of Debout la France also advocated for a referendum.[5] François Asselineau's Popular Republican Union instead advocate a unilateral withdrawal of the EU using article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon.[6]

In an early use of the term Frexit, Le Pen said "Just call me Madame Frexit" in a Bloomberg Television interview she gave journalist Caroline Connan on 23 June 2015, one year before the Brexit referendum in June 2016.[7] In a January 2018 interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation, President of France Emmanuel Macron agreed with Andrew Marr that the French people were equally disenchanted with globalisation and if presented with a simple yes / no response to such a complex question, they would "probably" have voted for Frexit in the same circumstances.[8]

In August 2019, Le Monde editorial director Sylvie Kauffmann argued that "Brexit has made Frexit impossible" and that Le Pen "no longer dared push her Frexit argument" by the time of the 2017 presidential election.[9]

Frexit-backed activists (PRU-UPR) gathered at Parliament Square in London on 29 March 2019 to support Brexit

Surveys

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In January 2019, pollster Institut français d'opinion publique conducted a survey on several questions that might be asked were the Citizens' initiative referendum to be applied in France. One of these questions is about the exit of France from the EU. The result was that 60% opposed it.[10] A YouGov/Eurotrack survey conducted in March 2023 among 1002 French citizens found that 48% would vote to remain in the EU, 26% would vote to leave, while another 26% would not know/refused/abstained.[11]

Analyses

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Likelihood

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In October 2016 (shortly after the UK's decision to leave the EU), the British political analyst Simon Usherwood, a specialist on euroscepticism, opined that France would be the country which was most susceptible to following the UK.[12] Also in late 2016, George Soros, who was opposed to Brexit, predicted that France and the Netherlands would be the next countries to leave the EU.[13]

In March 2017, Moody's Corporation stated that "the risk that the election results (...) will reopen the question of the maintenance in France of a single currency and its membership of the European Union, is small but growing".[14]

At the same time, the Belgian Herman Van Rompuy, former president of the European Council, rejected the potential for a Frexit and a Nexit (the withdrawal of the Netherlands).[15]

Constitutional amendment

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In an OpEd for Le Monde in April 20017, French jurist Dominique Rousseau wrote "an amendment that would aim to suppress title XV relating to the European Union [in the Constitution of France] is impossible because it would call into question the Republican tradition of loyal cooperation with other states.[16]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Euroscepticism on rise in Europe, poll suggests". BBC News. 6 June 2016. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  2. ^ "Sondage : les Français ne veulent pas quitter l'Europe". lefigaro.fr. 29 June 2016. Retrieved 24 November 2016.
  3. ^ Chrisafis, Angelique (24 June 2016). "European far right hails Brexit vote". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  4. ^ Thomson, Adam (25 June 2016). "François Hollande meets Marine Le Pen to discuss Brexit fallout". Financial Times. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  5. ^ Focraud, Arnaud (21 June 2016). "Le Pen, Mélenchon, Dupont-Aignan… A chaque eurosceptique son 'Frexit'" [Le Pen, Mélenchon, Dupont-Aignan... To each eurosceptic their own 'Frexit']. Le Journal du Dimanche (in French). Retrieved 30 June 2016.
  6. ^ "Study: Frexit chaos would be 'worse than collapse of Lehman Brothers'". euractiv.com. 21 March 2017.
  7. ^ "Marine le Pen: Just Call Me Madame Frexit". Bloomberg News. 23 June 2015.
  8. ^ "Macron on Brexit, Frexit and Trump". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2024.
  9. ^ "'Something resembling hell': how does the rest of the world view the UK?". The Observer. 4 August 2019. Retrieved 4 August 2019.
  10. ^ "Les Français et le référendum d'initiative citoyenne". IFOP (in French). Retrieved 13 December 2024.
  11. ^ "YouGov / Eurotrack Survey Results March 2023" (PDF). YouGov/Eurotrack. March 2023.
  12. ^ "Après le Brexit, le Frexit ?". Euronews.com. 23 August 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  13. ^ Strydom, Martin (27 June 2016). "Get ready for Frexit and Nexit in damaged Europe, says Soros". The Times. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  14. ^ "La probabilité d'un "Frexit"  progresse selon Moody's". lesechos.fr. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 14 March 2017..
  15. ^ ""Frexit? Nexit? Cela n'arrivera pas" déclare Herman Van Rompuy". sudinfo.be. 7 March 2017. Retrieved 7 March 2017..
  16. ^ Rousseau, Dominique (14 April 2017). "La Constitution de Marine Le Pen, c'est L'Etat français de Vichy". Le Monde. Retrieved 14 April 2017.
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